The markets have zoomed higher on a week-on-week basis with a jump in volumes as the bulls put in some big ticket trades. The comparison over last week is not exactly fair as the previous week was shorter due to good Friday and this week was the expiry week. The outstanding net long positions are down approx 15 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a routine development after expiry. The outlook appears to be cautiously optimistic as the markets are trading above the short term support at the 2035 levels which points towards a possibility of 2080 - 2100 levels if more buying occurs. The Nifty April futures trade at Rs 7 discount to cash - as against at Re 1 premium to cash last weekend. The stocks of the week are likely to remain Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	2,955 478
Stock futures	8,707 968
Index options		645 801	551 1245	94  444
Stock options		713 1776	156 549	557  1227
Total Futures	11,662 1446	Total options - net	651 783
Gross longs ( F+O )	13,020 4023	Net longs ( F+O )	12,313 2229

Observation - The net out-standings have fallen as the above table indicates. This is a routine development after expiry. Click here to view previous weeks file

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 17,043 crs, net long positions Rs 14,542 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 9,680 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have bought more futures than they sold on Mar 31, 2005. That indicates a buying bias in the near term. Purchases of Rs. 359 Crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The traded volumes have jumped. The traded turnover was higher in all the segments. The figures are not a fair comparison as the previous week was a short one due to a holiday. Expiry considerations also contributed to higher traded volumes. We want the volumes and prices to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautiously optimistic in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	16,892	24,844	7,952
Stock futures	28,101	43,362	15,261
Totals - a	44,993	68,206	23,213
Index calls	1,657	2,348	691
Stock calls	2,198	2,886	688
Totals - b	3,855	5,234	1,379
Index puts	2,066	2,109	43
Stock puts	1,023	1,032	09
Totals - c	3,089	3,141	52
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	51,937	76,581	24,644

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	0.86 : 1	Previous week	1.26: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.22 : 1	Previous week	0.26 : 1
PCR - Total	0.27 : 1	Previous week	0.32 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bulls as the ratios are showing a decrease in shorts on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have seen a significant decrease. The individual stocks show a sizeable decrease in short positions too. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained below the equilibrium point. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2050  CE	51	178	127
2100  CE	51	145	94
2000  CE	18	126	108
2150  CE	27	58	31
2200  CE	10	43	33
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2000  PE	38	145	107
2050  PE	55	99	44
1950  PE	17	94	77
2200  PE	02	64	62
2100  PE	65	60	05

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 393 Crs - showing a preference for the 2000 - 2050 strikes. Our inference is - watch the 2030 support levels in the coming days. The bears have added Rs. 285 Crs. That shows a tendency towards selling at the 1950 - 2000 strikes. The undertone appears cautiously optimistic for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Reliance	868	886	18
Tisco	1169	1163	06
NTPC	418	383	35
Infosys	443	376	67
SBI	478	445	33

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
NTPC 90 Calls	18	42	24
RELIANCE 560 calls	08	35	27
NTPC 85 calls	11	29	18
TISCO 420 calls	08	25	17
TISCO 410 calls	02	23	21

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance & NTPC. Outstanding open interest in most of the stocks has fallen - a routine phenomena after expiry. Infosys is the new kid on the block. Watch Reliance & Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week. Click here to view previous weeks file.

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The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 1950 - 2100 on the long side and NTPC, Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

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