The markets have collapsed on a week-on-week basis with a slump in volumes as the bulls abstained from big ticket trades. The outstanding net long positions are up approx 5 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a routine development after expiry. The outlook appears to be cautious as the markets are trading below the short term support at the 2035 levels which points towards a possibility of 2005 levels if more selling occurs. The Nifty April futures trade at Rs 10 discount to cash - as against at Rs 7 discount to cash last weekend. The stocks of the week are likely to remain Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	3,151 196
Stock futures	8,661 46
Index options		935 290	790 239	145 51
Stock options		1240 527	279 123	961  404
Total Futures	11,812 150	Total options - net	1106 455
Gross longs ( F+O )	13,987 967	Net longs ( F+O )	12,918 605

Observation - The net out-standings have risen as the above table indicates. This is a routine development after expiry. Click here to view previous weeks file

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 13,020 crs, net long positions Rs 12,313 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 9,541 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have bought more futures than they sold on April 07, 2005. That indicates a buying bias in the near term. Purchases of Rs. 60 Crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The traded volumes have slumped. The traded turnover was lower in all the segments. We want the volumes and prices to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautiously optimistic in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	24,844	14,713	10,131
Stock futures	43,362	24,133	19,229
Totals - a	68,206	38,846	29,360
Index calls	2,348	1,575	773
Stock calls	2,886	1,934	952
Totals - b	5,234	3,509	1,725
Index puts	2,109	1,125	984
Stock puts	1,032	472	560
Totals - c	3,141	1,597	1,544
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	76,581	43,952	32,629

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	0.86 : 1	Previous week	0.86: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.23 : 1	Previous week	0.22 : 1
PCR - Total	0.28 : 1	Previous week	0.27 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bears as the ratios are showing an increase in shorts on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have seen a slight increase. The individual stocks show an increase in short positions too. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained below the equilibrium point. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2100  CE	145	239	94
2050  CE	178	222	44
2000  CE	126	179	53
2150  CE	58	73	15
2200  CE	43	50	07
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2000  PE	145	235	90
1950  PE	94	164	70
2050  PE	99	150	51
2200  PE	64	74	10
2100  PE	60	68	08

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 213 Crs - showing a preference for the 2000 - 2100 strikes. Our inference is - watch the 2018 / 2004 support levels in the coming days. The bears have added Rs. 229 Crs. That shows a tendency towards selling at the 1950 - 2050 strikes. The undertone appears cautious for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Reliance	886	919	33
Tisco	1163	1134	29
NTPC	383	398	15
Infosys	376	436	60
SBI	445	452	07

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
NTPC 90 Calls	42	62	20
TISCO 400 calls	23	59	36
RELIANCE 560 calls	35	53	18
NTPC 85 calls	29	40	11
TISCO 410 calls	23	39	16

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance & NTPC. Outstanding open interest in most of the stocks has risen - a routine phenomena after expiry. Infosys is the new kid on the block. Watch Reliance & Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week. Click here to view previous weeks file.

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The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 2000 - 2100 on the long side and Infosys, NTPC, Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

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