The markets have collapsed on a week-on-week basis with a slump in volumes as the bulls abstained from big ticket trades. The volumes were lower even if a shorter week is adjusted for. The outstanding net long positions are up approx 3 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a negative development after expiry as the bulls display a lack of buying conviction at lower levels. The outlook appears to be cautious as the markets are trading below the short term support at the 2004 levels which points towards a possibility of 1910 - 1925 levels if more selling occurs. The Nifty April futures trade at Rs 16 discount to cash - as against at Rs 10 discount to cash last weekend. The stocks of the week are likely to remain Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	3,501 350
Stock futures	8,288 373
Index options		1164 229	824 34	340 195
Stock options		1585 345	351 72	1234  273
Total Futures	11,789 23	Total options - net	1574 468
Gross longs ( F+O )	14,538 551	Net longs ( F+O )	13,363 445

Observation - The net out-standings have risen marginally as the above table indicates. This is a negative development after expiry as the bulls lack buying conviction. Click here to view previous weeks file

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 13,987 crs, net long positions Rs 12,918 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 9,497 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have bought more futures than they sold on April 13, 2005. That indicates a buying bias in the near term. Purchases of Rs. 176 Crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The traded volumes have slumped. The traded turnover was lower in all the segments. The week was shorter by a day and that is part of the reason for the fall in volumes. We want the volumes and prices to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautiously optimistic in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	14,713	10,549	4,164
Stock futures	24,133	15,302	8,831
Totals - a	38,846	25,851	12,995
Index calls	1,575	1,606	31
Stock calls	1,934	1,465	469
Totals - b	3,509	3,071	438
Index puts	1,125	1,240	115
Stock puts	472	490	18
Totals - c	1,597	1,730	133
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	43,952	30,652	13,300

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	0.72 : 1	Previous week	0.86: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.23 : 1	Previous week	0.23 : 1
PCR - Total	0.27 : 1	Previous week	0.28 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bulls as the ratios are showing a decrease in shorts on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have seen a significant decrease. The individual stocks show a decrease in short positions too. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained below the equilibrium point. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2100  CE	239	288	49
2000  CE	179	223	44
2050  CE	222	200	22
1950  CE	40	136	96
2150  CE	73	68	05
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
1950  PE	164	218	54
2000  PE	235	204	31
2050  PE	150	102	48
2200  PE	74	73	01
2100  PE	68	58	10

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 162 Crs - showing a preference for the 1950 - 2100 strikes. Our inference is - watch the 1920 / 1934 support levels in the coming days. The bears have reduced Rs. 36 Crs. That shows a tendency towards squaring up at the 2000 - 2050 strikes. The undertone appears cautious for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Reliance	919	899	20
Tisco	1134	1088	46
NTPC	398	373	25
Infosys	436	415	21
SBI	452	428	24

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
NTPC 90 Calls	62	68	06
TISCO 400 calls	59	62	03
RELIANCE 560 calls	53	58	05
NTPC 85 calls	40	43	03
TISCO 410 calls	39	36	03

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance & NTPC. Outstanding open interest in all the stocks has fallen - a negative phenomena after expiry. Infosys is the new kid on the block. Watch Reliance & Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week. Click here to view previous weeks file.

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The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 1930 - 2100 on the long side and Infosys, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

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