The markets have rallied on a week-on-week basis with a slight increase in volumes as the players abstained from big ticket short term trades. The outstanding net long positions are up approx 11 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a positive development after expiry. The outlook appears to be cautiously optimistic as the markets are trading below the short term resistance at the 2377 levels which points towards a possibility of  2339 / 2290 levels if more selling occurs. The Nifty near month futures trade at Re 1 discount to cash - as against at par with cash last weekend. The stocks of the week are likely to remain Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	5,474 213
Stock futures	15,847 305
Index options		1169 254	2094 589	(-) 925 335
Stock options		1896 538	477 154	1419 384
Total Futures	21,321 518	Total options - net	494 49
Gross longs ( F+O )	24,386 2062	Net longs ( F+O )	21,815 2223

Observation - The net out-standings have risen approx 11 % as the above table indicates. This is a positive development after expiry. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 22,324 crs, net long positions Rs 19,592 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 16,338 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have bought more futures than they sold on Aug 11, 2005. That indicates a buying bias in the near term. Sales of Rs. 0.20 Crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The traded volumes have jumped slightly. The traded turnover was higher in the options segment. This shows a lower retail participation in the futures segment - a cautious outlook. We want the volumes and prices to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautious in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	16,347	22,994	6,647
Stock futures	61,680	54,139	7,541
Totals - a	78,027	77,133	894
Index calls	1,662	2,486	824
Stock calls	3,414	3,103	311
Totals - b	5,076	5,589	513
Index puts	1,861	2,717	856
Stock puts	647	692	45
Totals - c	2,508	3,409	901
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	85,611	86,131	520

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	1.82 : 1	Previous week	1.67: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.22 : 1	Previous week	0.21 : 1
PCR - Total	0.28 : 1	Previous week	0.27 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bears as the ratios are showing a significant increase in shorts on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have seen a quantum jump. The individual stocks show an increase in short positions too. The reduction in shorts is below average after expiry. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained below the equilibrium point. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2350   CE	200	275	75
2300  CE	190	228	38
2400  CE	83	165	82
2250 29 SEP  CE	66	66	00
2200  CE	62	58	04
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2300  PE	492	627	135
2350   PE	225	366	141
2250   PE	257	319	62
2200  PE	140	170	30
2250 29 SEP  PE	66	141	75

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 191 Crs - showing a preference for the 2300 - 2400 strikes. Our inference is - watch the 2290 / 2339 support levels in the coming days. The bears have increased Rs. 443 Crs. That shows a tendency towards the 2250 - 2350 strikes. The undertone appears cautiously optimistic for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Reliance	1698	1833	135
Tisco	798	831	33
SBI	551	558	07
Rel capital	481	459	22
VSNL	465	475	10

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
RELIANCE 740 calls	56	75	19
RELIANCE 760  calls	57	72	15
RELIANCE 720 calls	34	68	34
NTPC 100 Calls	48	58	10
TISCO 400 calls	36	46	10

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance & SBI. Outstanding open interest in most of the stocks has risen - a routine phenomena after expiry. Watch Reliance & Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week. Click here to view previous weeks file.

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The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 2300 - 2400 on the long side and IDFC, Reliance Inds, & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

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