-
Markets crack
supports. Volumes
& volatility continue to fall.
- Outstanding long positions
up marginally.
The markets have fallen by
1 % on poor volumes as the retail participants have continued to stay away from
day-to-day activity. That remains our biggest concern and we have been
pointing out this aspect regularly since the last two months. The Outstanding net long positions are up approximately
09 %
on a week-on-week basis. This is a positive development as the bulls
show marginal conviction at lower levels. The traded volumes were 15 % lower. The
outlook appears cautious as the markets are seeking a support
base near the 1450 levels which if violated, will see 1395 levels.
|
Outstanding
positions - week on week |
Market
internals - outstandings - all Rs crores
| Description |
Rupees
crores |
Call
options |
Put
options |
Net
position |
| Index Futures |
1,771
118 |
|
|
|
| Stock futures |
2,909
106 |
|
|
|
| Index options |
|
489
81 |
370
97 |
119
16 |
| Stock options |
|
661
149 |
200
59 |
461
90 |
| Total Futures |
4,680
224 |
Total options - net |
580
74 |
|
| Gross longs ( F+ O ) |
5,830
454 |
Net longs (
F+ O ) |
5,260
298 |
|
Observation - The
out-standings have increased as the above table indicates. The rise
in out-standings has come from the futures segment and longs in stock
options. The index options show a
marginal fall in outstanding positions. The coming days will
continue to be
governed by news driven considerations. Click
here to view previous weeks file
Note - Previous
weekend gross long
positions Rs 5,376 crs, net long positions Rs 4,962 crs.
Source - The National
Stock Exchange.
|
FII
F&O positions as on June 10, 2004  |
| Instrument |
BUY |
SELL |
EXCERCISED |
ASSIGNED |
OPEN
INT (end of the day) |
| |
No.
of contracts |
Amt
in Crores |
No.
of contracts |
Amt
in Crores |
No.
of contracts |
Amt
in Crores |
No.
of contracts |
Amt
in Crores |
No.
of contracts |
Amt
in Crores |
| INDEX
FUTURES |
1564 |
47.68 |
148 |
4.53 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
42522 |
1299.55 |
| INDEX
OPTIONS |
2 |
0.05 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
727 |
22.46 |
| STOCK
FUTURES |
1817 |
48.74 |
599 |
14.13 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
60693 |
1607.86 |
| STOCK
OPTIONS |
7 |
0.18 |
8 |
0.21 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
113 |
2.81 |
Source - The National
Stock Exchange
|
Traded
volumes - all figures are weekly |
The traded volumes have crashed - a
negative sign as the retail segment has shown signs of withdrawal. The
traded turnover was lower all round, barring the put options. We expect this
trend to continue in the coming week. The combination of
traded volumes, open interest and market breadth are a reliable indicator
of the undercurrents. The outlook appears brittle in the short term. Click
here to view previous weeks file
| Description |
Previous week - Rs. crores |
Current - Rs. crores |
Change - Rs crores |
| Index Futures |
17,034 |
12,916 |
4,118 |
| Stock futures |
16,864 |
14,863 |
2,001 |
| Totals - a |
33,898 |
27,779 |
6,119 |
| |
| Index calls |
1,107 |
922 |
185 |
| Stock calls |
1,136 |
1,141 |
05 |
| Totals - b |
2,243 |
2,063 |
180 |
| |
| Index puts |
720 |
742 |
22 |
| Stock puts |
351 |
400 |
49 |
| Totals - c |
1,071 |
1,142 |
71 |
| |
|
|
|
| Grand totals ( a+b+c) |
37,212 |
30,984 |
6,228 |
Source - The National
Stock Exchange.
|
Nuts
and bolts - week on week |
| PCR - Index |
0.80 : 1 |
Previous week |
0.71:
1 |
| PCR - Stocks |
0.31 : 1 |
Previous week |
0.27 :
1 |
| PCR - Total |
0.36 : 1 |
Previous week |
0.32 : 1 |
Observation - The PCR shows a tilt
towards the bears as the ratios are showing higher short positions on a week-on-week basis.
The Nifty PCR has turned outright bearish, the shorts have risen faster
than the longs. The total PCR has remained above the optimal point. The
equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click
here to view previous weeks file
Source - The National
Stock Exchange.
|
Directional
guidance - week on week |
Market
internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts
| Calls |
Previous week Rs
Crs |
Current Rs crores |
Change Rs Crs |
| 1600 CE |
106 |
126 |
20 |
| 1500
CE |
80 |
85 |
05 |
| 1550 CE |
60 |
82 |
22 |
| 1700 CE |
31 |
33 |
02 |
| 1650 CE |
23 |
30 |
07 |
| |
| Puts |
Previous week Rs
Crs |
Current Rs crores |
Change Rs Crs |
| 1500 PE |
65 |
104 |
39 |
| 1450 PE |
71 |
87 |
16 |
| 1400 PE |
46 |
64 |
18 |
| 1550 PE |
15 |
26 |
11 |
| 1370 PE |
14 |
16 |
02 |
Observation - The index contracts show
which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have
increased all round in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 56 Crs. Our inference is - watch the
1450 support levels for the coming week. The bears have added Rs 86 Crs. That shows a tendency towards
initiating shorts at higher levels at out of money strike prices. The undertone appears
cautious for now.
Click
here to view previous weeks file
Source - The National Stock Exchange.
|
Directional
guidance - day on day |
Top 5
scrips with positive changes in open interest
| Scrip |
Series |
Open
int |
Change
in OI |
Total
OI in Rs crs |
BANKINDIA |
24-Jun-04 |
2732200 |
695400 |
13.90 |
| M&M |
24-Jun-04 |
1666250 |
176250 |
72.89 |
| ONGC |
24-Jun-04 |
2479200 |
153600 |
157.51 |
| ORIENTBANK |
24-Jun-04 |
1351200 |
151200 |
28.96 |
| RELIANCE |
24-Jun-04 |
5371200 |
137400 |
231.79 |
|
Top 5
scrips with negative changes in open interest
|
Scrip
|
Series
|
Open int
|
Change in OI
|
Total OI in
Rs crs
|
| SCI |
24-Jun-04 |
1369600 |
-142400 |
13.18 |
| SBIN |
24-Jun-04 |
2495500 |
-242000 |
116.50 |
| MTNL |
24-Jun-04 |
2134400 |
-376000 |
27.34 |
| ARVINDMILL |
24-Jun-04 |
3745300 |
-421400 |
23.52 |
| TATAMOTORS |
24-Jun-04 |
3769425 |
-493350 |
146.08 |
|
Source - The National Stock Exchange.
|
The
center stage - week on week |
5 Highest
outstanding scrips
| Futures |
Previous week Rs
Crs |
Current Rs. Crores |
Change Rs Crs |
| Reliance |
262 |
233 |
29 |
| Tisco |
296 |
251 |
45 |
| Telco |
176 |
147 |
29 |
| Infosys |
142 |
149 |
07 |
| ONGC |
131 |
159 |
28 |
| |
| Options |
Previous week Rs
Crs |
Current Rs. Crores |
Change Rs Crs |
| Tisco 320 calls |
26 |
31 |
05 |
| Satyam 320 calls |
14 |
25 |
11 |
| Tisco 330 calls |
17 |
18 |
01 |
| Tisco
300 calls |
12 |
18 |
06 |
| Satyam 330 Calls |
13 |
18 |
05 |
- Observation - The action remains polarised around the
same big counters - Tisco, Reliance, SBI & Telco. Outstanding open interest in
most of the stocks has fallen - a sign of caution. Watch Reliance for directional guidance in the coming week.
Click
here to view previous weeks file.
Most
active calls - top 10
- Symbol
|
- Expiry Date
|
- Strike Price
|
- No of Contracts
- Traded
|
- Contract Value
- (Rs. lakhs)
|
- Last Traded
- Price
|
- Open
- Interest
|
- Value of
- Underlying
|
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1500.00 |
2390 |
7368.85 |
31.50 |
573600 |
1506.30 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1550.00 |
1970 |
6185.64 |
13.40 |
530000 |
1506.30 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1600.00 |
974 |
3130.88 |
5.00 |
788800 |
1506.30 |
| SATYAMCOMP |
24JUN2004 |
310.00 |
474 |
1814.53 |
7.20 |
466800 |
300.10 |
| SATYAMCOMP |
24JUN2004 |
320.00 |
390 |
1522.78 |
4.20 |
786000 |
300.10 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1530.00 |
437 |
1360.88 |
18.40 |
76200 |
1506.30 |
| TISCO |
24JUN2004 |
300.00 |
475 |
1319.78 |
5.40 |
605700 |
289.35 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1520.00 |
363 |
1128.16 |
21.75 |
71000 |
1506.30 |
| TISCO |
24JUN2004 |
310.00 |
380 |
1077.98 |
3.00 |
513900 |
289.35 |
| TATAPOWER |
24JUN2004 |
240.00 |
477 |
958.04 |
6.60 |
294400 |
229.70 |
Most
active puts - top 10
- Symbol
|
- Expiry Date
|
- Strike Price
|
- No of Contracts
- Traded
|
- Contract Value
- (Rs. lakhs)
|
- Last Traded
- Price
|
- Open
- Interest
|
- Value of
- Underlying
|
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1500.00 |
2882 |
8850.85 |
43.20 |
705800 |
1506.30 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1450.00 |
1222 |
3587.28 |
21.85 |
593000 |
1506.30 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1550.00 |
662 |
2137.31 |
76.00 |
173600 |
1506.30 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1400.00 |
532 |
1498.23 |
10.50 |
454800 |
1506.30 |
| SATYAMCOMP |
24JUN2004 |
300.00 |
333 |
1238.12 |
11.10 |
403200 |
300.10 |
| RELIANCE |
24JUN2004 |
440.00 |
265 |
720.22 |
17.00 |
136800 |
430.30 |
| SATYAMCOMP |
24JUN2004 |
310.00 |
169 |
658.59 |
17.50 |
165600 |
300.10 |
| TISCO |
24JUN2004 |
300.00 |
164 |
461.40 |
16.00 |
220500 |
289.35 |
| SATYAMCOMP |
24JUN2004 |
290.00 |
121 |
429.10 |
6.55 |
298800 |
300.10 |
| NIFTY |
24JUN2004 |
1600.00 |
120 |
407.93 |
119.00 |
107600 |
1506.30 |
- The activity is polarised around the
Nifty between the 1500 - 1600 on the long side and Satyam Computers,
Tata Power &
Tisco in individual stocks.
-
- Source - The National Stock Exchange.
|
Traders
delights - most volatile counters |
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-
- Vijay L. Bhambwani
The author is
a Mumbai based investment consultant and
invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com
and (022) 23438482 / 23400345.
SEBI
disclosure - The author
has no positions in the stocks
mentioned above.
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