Weekly market view.             Dec 25, 2004

 
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Dec 25, 2004

Markets rally to new highs. Sensex gains 152 points.

Lower volumes, positive breadth as FII's ramp up sentiments.

Weekly statistics

Indices Open High Low Close Change
BSE - 30 6360 6507 6345 6498 151.58
BSE - 200 851 872 850 871 22.09
NSE - 50 2012 2065 2007 2062 50.60
Dow Jones 10827 177 Nasdaq 2161 25 FTSE

4798 101

Advances 8958 Declines 6771 Put / Call trades - 41026 : 127219
FII Investments Rs  5039 Crs Dec 1 - 23 Domestic Funds Rs  501 Crs Dec 1 - 23

The value of shares advancing was Rs. 32,448 crores ( previous week Rs. 36,965 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 13,021 crores ( previous week Rs. 16,335 crores ). This indicates a buying bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 21,030 Crores ( previous week Rs. 29,977 Crores ). The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 24,827 Crores ( previous week Rs. 23,456 Crores ).

The week that was

The markets have celebrated a bull dance in the pre-christmas week as the indices surged to their new lifetime highs. The traded volumes were marginally lower as the festive season coupled with nervousness laced sentiments. The market breadth was positive and the undertone was optimistic. The rally came from the old economy stocks as the technology sector was dogged by a weak US $. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, ITC, L&T, Maruti, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, SBI, Telco, Tata Power and Tisco. The Sensex was dragged down by HDFC, Hind Lever, Infosys, MTNL, Ranbaxy, Satyam Computers, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.79 levels ( 00.14 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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Likely triggers

  • The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are easing as the Nymex closed at US $ 44.18 / barrel ( previous week US $ 46.28 / barrel )

  • The FII inflows are continuing to remain positive with Rs 710 Crs recorded this week ( previous week Rs. 1135 Crs ). The slowdown can be attributed to the festive holidays.

  • The F&O indicators point towards a rising open interest which is indicating higher risk appetite among the bulls. At the same time the Nifty PCR is testing record highs. The outlook looks positive.

  • The INR has gained against the US $, which is likely to keep the technology stocks top heavy. Being heavily weighted in the indices, this sector will drag the markets.

  • The Reliance imbroglio is likely to ease this week as the sweat equity issue and the buyback are likely to attract trader focus.

  • The market breadth points towards a firm undertone as the bulls have managed to maintain a hold on the sentiments.

  • The overseas markets have gained sharply to test 3 1/2 year highs as improved employment / consumer spending / earnings data lifted sentiments. This is likely to have a trickle down effect on the domestic markets.

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Technicals

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Your call of action

For stock specific recommendations please refer to our special edition " Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the "Flavours of the week".

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Have a profitable day.
 
Vijay L Bhambwani
Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.


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