The markets have consolidated on a week-on-week basis with a rally in volumes as the expiry normally witnesses this kind of volumes expansion. The outstanding net long positions are down approx 15 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a routine development as the expiry witnesses this type of paring of exposure. The outlook appears to be cautious as the markets are trading below the short term support at the 2064 levels which points towards a possibility of 2044 - 2034 levels if more selling occurs. The Nifty March futures trade at Rs 5 discount to cash - as against at Rs 2 premium to cash last weekend ( Feb series ). The stocks of the week are likely to be Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	2,725 429
Stock futures	8,374 1317
Index options		763 545	774 601	(-) 11  56
Stock options		890 1128	198 470	692  658
Total Futures	11,099 1746	Total options - net	681 602
Gross longs ( F+O )	12,752 3419	Net longs ( F+O )	11,780 2348

Observation - The net out-standings have fallen as the above table indicates. This is a routine development after expiry. Click here to view previous weeks file

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 16,171 crs, net long positions Rs 14,128 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 8670 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have bought more futures than they sold on Feb 24, 2005. That indicates a buying bias in the near term. Purchases of Rs. 41 Crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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The traded volumes have jumped. The traded turnover was higher in almost all the segments. That is a routine development as the week saw expiry of the February series. We want the volumes and prices to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautious in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	15,605	1,8876	3,271
Stock futures	34,621	4,2537	7,916
Totals - a	50,226	61,413	11,187
Index calls	1,790	2,096	306
Stock calls	3,374	3,537	163
Totals - b	5,164	5,633	469
Index puts	1,489	1,873	384
Stock puts	875	845	30
Totals - c	2,364	2,718	354
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	57,754	69,764	12,010

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	1.05 : 1	Previous week	1.08: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.22 : 1	Previous week	0.30 : 1
PCR - Total	0.28 : 1	Previous week	0.35 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bulls as the ratios are showing a decrease in shorts on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have seen a slight decrease. The individual stocks show a decrease in short positions too. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained above the equilibrium point. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2100  CE	75	263	188
2050  CE	46	200	154
2150  CE	53	198	145
2000  CE	11	37	26
1900  CE	17	22	05
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2050  PE	51	291	240
2000  PE	59	217	158
2100  PE	44	92	48
1950  PE	38	88	50
1900  PE	20	42	22

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased in the previous week. A word of caution - the outstanding appears to be higher as the March series are being considered, which upto last week was on light OI. The bulls have added Rs 518 Crs - showing a preference for the 2050 - 2150 strikes. Our inference is - watch the 2034 support levels in the coming days. The bears have added Rs. 518 Crs. That shows a tendency towards selling at the 2000 - 2100 strikes. The undertone appears cautious for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Reliance	861	763	98
Tisco	1183	1042	141
NTPC	526	479	47
ONGC	502	399	103
SBI	557	568	11

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
NTPC 95  Calls	23	51	28
NTPC 100  calls	15	45	30
NTPC 90 calls	20	42	22
TISCO 420 calls	12	37	25
ONGC 840  calls	01	36	35

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance & NTPC. Outstanding open interest in almost all of the stocks has fallen - a routine phenomena after expiry. ONGC is the new kid on the block. Watch Reliance & Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week.  Click here to view previous weeks file.

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The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 2050 - 2150 on the long side and Arvind Mills, NTPC, ONGC, SBI & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

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This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

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