The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

Arvind Mills - this scrip was recommended by us frequently and has been a market out-performer. Previous recommendations were dtd Sept 05, Oct 31 2004, Jan 16 and 22, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. Technical traders may note that the scrip has exhibited clear wavular movement and is in the 3 rd wave which is projecting a resistance at the 138 - 140 levels. This is also the point where the scrip has returned lower after an intraday high. Currently the scrip is in a consolidation mode and is likely to drift lower with an overall slide in the markets. We feel the 105 - 110 levels will be an important retracement support below which the scrip is unlikely to go significantly lower in the near term. Note also the directional move oscillator is indicating that the overall trend remains bullish and the current fall is a routine correction. We recommend a buy on major declines and also an exotic options strategy as below.

Bharat Electronics - this scrip was recommended earlier vide our editions dtd. Sept 19, Oct 03, Nov 07, 14, 27 and Dec 19, 2004. Click here to view the previous recommendations. Note the very high relative strength of 366 and the higher tops and bottoms chart formation. The corrective fall between Dec 03 - June 04 did not erase more than the stipulated gains from the earlier rally, which pointed to an underlying strength. The directional movement oscillator is pointing towards a strength in the upmove and a consistent close above the 700 mark will be a sure confirmation of the bullishness in the counter. We recommend a buy for the patient and disciplined trader / investor for the medium / long term.

BHEL - this scrip was recommended by us vide our earlier editions dtd. Sept 05, Oct 10, Dec 12 and 19, 2004, Jan 09 & 30 and Feb 06, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. A projected price of 825 / 840 was advocated when the then current levels were 725. That target has been achieved before the budget. We feel the chart pattern is suggestive of further strength and the oscillators are displaying a positive co-relation in tandem with the price chart. The relative strength is very high at 808 and the scrip has achieved a breakout into a new trading zone where no recorded resistance levels are known. We revise our price target to 914 levels as per the time / price projections available. Corrective falls in the interim maybe seen. Buying is recommended for the higher risk appetite trader / investor.

Grasim - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd. Oct 31, Dec 05 & 19, Jan 30, Feb 06 & 13, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The breakout that we advocated at the 1368 levels was achieved and the scrip has failed to take off after the event. The underlying undercurrents remain firm and the oscillators are signalling a bullish outlook. The relative strength is high at 215 ( where 100 = base ) and the directional index is showing a firm reading. We feel a sustained closing above the 1368 will propel the stock into a bull orbit where the scrip will trade in new lifetime highs. We recommend a buy.

ICICI Bank - this banking major was recommended vide our editions dtd Nov 26 2004 and Feb 13, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The stock has broken out into a new bullish groove and is showing a strong chart formation. A higher tops and bottoms formation is being seen and the oscillators are supporting the rally. The scrip has a high relative strength of 878 and the stock is a market out-performer. As long as the scrip remains above the 380 mark, the chances of 415 - 425 are fairly high. We recommend a buy for the patient and disciplined trader / investor.

Petronet LNG - this scrip has seen a significant flare up in the last calendar quarter and is fast growing into a strong market out-performer. The daily chart is suggesting a consolidation / correction and the scrip is likely to take support at the 40 / 42 levels where a short term floor price is expected. Ling term investors are advocated to buy this multi bagger in the making with abundant patience for excellent returns.

NTPC - this scrip has been a frequent feature in our PTR / flavours / sms recommendations and has performed exceedingly well. We recommended this scrip vide our past editions dtd Dec 26 2004, Jan 01, 09 & 30 and Feb 06, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip has broken out of a congestion band of 92 - 93 and managed a close above this level. As long as close is maintained above the 93 mark, the stock is likely to witness a bullish outlook. Hi risk, short term players can venture a buy in small lots.

Raymonds - this often repeated scrip is performing as per our expectations and has shown signs of bottoming out of a corrective phase. Previous recommendations were dtd Sept 19, Nov 21 & 27, 2004 and Jan 16, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. A high relative strength scrip with a reading of 182 ( where 100 = base ), this scrip is likely to show an accelerated upmove above the 330 levels on a closing basis. The directional index is showing a bullish undertone and we recommend a buy.

Tisco - this scrip has the distinction of having the highest open interest in the futures segment. This scrip was recommended in our previous editions dtd. Sept 19 & 26, Oct 03, 10 & 23, Nov 07 & 14, Dec 19 2004 and Jan 06, 22 & 30, 2005 Click here to view the previous recommendations. The chart pattern suggests a higher tops and bottoms formation and the move is supported by the oscillators. The directional index is particularly positive and the relative strength is high at 234 ( where 100 = base ). We recommend a buy for the higher risk appetite trader and the patient investor.

Tata Power - this scrip was recommended in our recent editions dtd Sept 12 & 26, Oct 03, Nov 14, Dec 12, 2004 and Jan 16, 22, Feb 06, 2005 and has performed as per expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The oscillators are pointing towards a bullish undertone and the scrip enjoys a high relative strength of 332 on the charts. The scrip is making a higher tops and bottoms formation and is on the threshold of a breakout into the lifetime highs once the 428 levels are surpassed. We recommend a buy for the patient investor / trader.

BSE Sensex - ths Sensex is showing signs of consolidation after hitting a high above the 6700 levels. The 6485 / 6500 levels are a critical short term floor below which the sensex must not close on a sustained closing basis if the current upmove is to sustain itself. The oscillators are showing signs of profit taking and the index is likely to remain under pressure as long as the 6715 levels are not surpassed on a continous closing basis.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - the Nifty is showing signs of a range-bound trade with the upper band being at the 2085 - 2110 and the 2044 levels being the floor. It is crucial that the Nifty signal a breakout / breakdown to indicate a directional movement. Under no circumstances should the Nifty close below the 2034 levels on a consistent closing basis if the uptrend is to be maintained. A breakout above the 2120 levels with volumes will confirm the bullishness in the counter and the beginning of a new bull orbit. Being the expiry week and also the last week before the budget, the coming days will be make or break for the Nifty.

Your call of action - Short the March futures if the spot prices remain below the 2044 levels and the market fails to lift higher. Maintain a stop loss at the 2052 levels and a target of 2032 - 2034 in the short term. On the upsides, buy only if the Nifty spot stays convincingly above the 2065 levels, stop loss at the 2055 and target of 2078 - 2082.

CNX IT - this IT index is showing signs of resistance at higher levels as the 3000 levels are proving to be a strong hurdle for the index. Though the outlook is improving, the trend will be conclusively bullish only above the 3000 mark with high volumes. Watch the 2835 levels keenly for signs of weakness.

Your call of action - Since the CNX IT futures are not as liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - the Dow has snapped it's 3 week gaining spree to ease off as the interest rate news has been a brake on sentiments. We expect the 10920 levels to be a major short term resistance and the support to be at the 10655 levels.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Arvind Mills I BEL I BHEL I Grasim I ICICI Bank I Petronet LNG I NTPC I Raymonds I Tisco I Tata Power I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Nasdaq - this technology laden index is showing signs of resistance at the 2100 - 2105 levels, which it must surpass if the congestion / resistance is to be overcome and a positive reversal is witnessed. On the lower side, expect minor support at the 2020 levels.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Arvind Mills I BEL I BHEL I Grasim I ICICI Bank I Petronet LNG I NTPC I Raymonds I Tisco I Tata Power I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

FTSE - this UK index is showing the best strength among the international indices as the graph clearly shows a breakout above the resistance levels with a rising tops and bottoms formation pattern. We expect the FTSE to test the 5120 - 5130 levels in the coming weeks in a conducive scenario and a support at the 4955 levels on the lower side.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Arvind Mills I BEL I BHEL I Grasim I ICICI Bank I Petronet LNG I NTPC I Raymonds I Tisco I Tata Power I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio is climbing and is currently at the 0.35 : 1 levels and the outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have shown a quantitative increase. The FII investments are continuing steadily.
There is offloading at higher levels in stock futures. That indicates a cautious approach as long positions in individual stocks is being hedged by Nifty shorts.
The current week is crucial for the markets as the expiry, budget and IPO drain will determine the market trends hereafter.
The impeding expiry of the February series will see offloading and higher volatility in the near term.
Trades must be executed in minimal volumes due to the higher volatility expected. Trade fewer counters and conserve cash for future opportunities.
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in any securities mentioned above.