The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

Andhra Bank - this PSU banking scrip is on the threshold where the scrip is likely to signal a breakout / breakdown in the near term. Technical traders may notice the high relative strength and the bullish chart pattern wherein the 13 week SMA is a strong support area. Should a closing below the 80 levels be seen with high volumes, the outlook will turn weak, and if a closing above the 95 levels are seen with high volumes, a breakout into a new trading zone will be seen. Traders are advocated to take action as per the direction of the move.

Bharat Electronics - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd. Sept 19, Oct 10, Dec 12 & 19, 2004 Jan 09 & 30 and Feb 20 2005. The scrip has been a superlative market out-performer. Click here to view the previous recommendations. As long as the scrip stays above the 650 levels, the outlook remains positive and the breakout above this threshold level has taken the counter into lifetime highs where no past resistance is recorded. Technical traders will notice the high relative strength of 407 ( where 100 = base ). We forecast a price target of 810 - 830 as long as the corrective falls do not take the scrip below the 650 levels in the next few months. A buy for the disciplined trader / investor.

BHEL - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Sept 05, Oct 10, Dec 12 & 19 2004 and Jan 09 & 30 and Feb 06 & 20, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip was forecast to hit the 820 levels which it did and now on it's way to fulfill our second target of 914 levels in the medium term. It maybe noted the scrip has a very high relative strength of 874 ( where 100 = base ) and the chart pattern is suggestive of a bullish formation of higher tops and bottoms with the price graph staying above the moving averages. A consistent close above the 810 levels will be a signal of bullishness on the counter. A fresh buy can be contemplated on declines for higher risk appetite patient traders.

HDFC Bank - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd. Sept 19, Oct 03, Nov 07, Dec 12 & 26, 2004 and Jan 09, 16 & 30 2005. The scrip has been a fantastic trade / investment on the long side. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The relative strength of this counter is one of the highest in the markets at 1585 ( where 100 = base ) and that makes this counter one of the strongest out-performers. The scrip is exhibiting a classic higher tops and bottoms formation and is in a bullish grip as the oscillators and moving averages are in a buy mode. We recommend a buy on declines for the patient traders / investors. Currently, the scrip is near it's lifetime highs.

ITC - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd. Sept 12 2004 & Feb 06, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip has not been a superlative trade so far and is retracing ahead of the budget on the usual expectations of higher levies on it's tobacco business. We expect support at the 1200 - 1215 levels where a pullback is likely. The scrip has a high relative strength of 432 and should see a reversal from it's 30 week SMA. We recommend a buy for the higher risk appetite players on significant declines.

Raymond - this scrip was recommended by us vide earlier editions dtd Sept 19, Nov 21 & 27 2004 & Jan 16, Feb 06 & 20, 2005. The scrip has been a superlative performer and has almost fulfilled it's 6 - 8 month target in a faction of the time expected. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip is at it's lifetime highs and has a high relative strength of 170. As long as the scrip stays above the 300 levels, expect the outlook to remain bullish. We recommend a hold on existing positions and a buy on declines.

Tisco - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd. Sept 19 & 26, Oct 03, 10 & 23, Nov 07 & 14, Dec 05 & 19, 2004 and Jan 16, 22 & 30 and Feb 20, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The chart below speaks a thousand words. The scrip appreciated from the 85 levels to the 327 levels and retraced exactly 62 % to the 177 mark. The rally of 242 points ( 327 - 85 ) has been achieved from 177 corrective point. The Fibonacci study also points towards a rally from the 177 to the 419 levels. By both counts, the 420 level is a crucial level to watch for signs of a breakout. If the scrip closes above this level for sustained periods of time, expect the 515 levels to be achievable in a few months in a conducive market. We recommend a buy for the disciplined and high risk appetite players.

BSE Sensex - the BSE Sensex has been range bound since 18 sessions and is yet to signal a breakout above the short term trendline indicated in the graphic below - at the 6670 levels. On the lower side, expect support at the 6480 which is a crucial level to watch for the short / medium term players. If the Sensex closes below this level with high volumes and negative market sentiments, further falls can be sharper. On the upper side, a close above the 6625 levels will be a welcome sign for the short term players.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - Similar to the Sensex, the Nifty too is range bound. The support at lower levels is at the 2032 levels and the resistance at the 2080 levels. Unless a breakout / breakdown is signalled, we advocate a hands off approach. Wait and watch for buy / sell indicators after the budget has been digested properly by the market players.

CNX IT - this index has been under pressure since Dec 04 and has been unable to to surpass the previous highs. The 2800 levels are a crucial level to watch as below this support, the index can witness a faster fall in the near term. On the higher side, unless this index surpasses the 2924 levels, an upmove is unlikely.

Your call of action - Since the CNX IT futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - this old economy benchmark is near it's lifetime highs and is on the verge of a breakout above the 10900 levels. Lower levels will see support at the 10720 levels in the coming week.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Andhra Bank I BEL I BHEL I HDFC Bank I ITC I Raymond I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Nasdaq - this technology / biotech index is showing signs of under-performance vis-a-vis the Dow Jones and is likely to derive support at the 2000 mark. Resistance on the upside will be witnessed at the 2100 levels. Await a breakout / breakdown.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Andhra Bank I BEL I BHEL I HDFC Bank I ITC I Raymond I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

FTSE - this index has more relative strength as compared to the US indices seen above. The FTSE will get support at the 4885 levels and upsides will be met with selling pressure at the 5085 levels.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Andhra Bank I BEL I BHEL I HDFC Bank I ITC I Raymond I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio is climbing and is currently at the 0.28 : 1 levels and the outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have shown a routine fall after expiry. The FII investments are continuing steadily.
There is offloading at higher levels in stock futures. That indicates a cautious approach as long positions in individual stocks is being hedged by Nifty shorts.
The current week is crucial for the markets as the budget will set the tone and tenor of the immediate trends.
Trades must be executed in small volumes due to the higher volatility expected. Trade fewer counters and conserve cash for future opportunities.
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in any securities mentioned above.