Weekly market view.             Feb 12, 2005

 
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Feb 12, 2005

Markets crawl higher. Sensex gains 15 points

Lower volumes, positive breadth as stocks witness late rally

Weekly statistics

Indices Open High Low Close Change
BSE - 30 6652 6658 6508 6633 15.53
BSE - 200 886 893 875 891 08.52
NSE - 50 2097 2098 2043 2082 04.10
Dow Jones 10796 80 Nasdaq 2077  10 FTSE

5044 103

Advances 9115 Declines 6845 Put / Call trades - 42128 : 107858
FII Investments Rs  3563 Crs Feb 1 - 10 Domestic Funds Rs  21 Crs Feb 1 - 10

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 30,576 crores ( previous week Rs. 53,362 crores ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 15,363 crores ( previous week Rs. 20,032 crores ). This indicates a buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 22,209 Crores ( previous week Rs. 44,648 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 25,023 Crores ( previous week Rs. 28,962 Crores ).

The week that was

The week was marked by lower volumes and a subdued undertone. The markets managed to hold on to their gains on a week-on-week basis due to the sheer gains in the technology sector which saved the week. The retail participation was wanting and the index heavy weights appeared top heavy. The saving grace was the positive market breadth and the continued FII inflows. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Dr Reddy, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, HPCL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, L&T, Maruti, MTNL, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Telco, Tata Power and Tisco. The Sensex was dragged down by Bharti Tele, Cipla, Grasim, Guj Ambuja Cements, HDFC, Hind Lever, Hindalco, ITC, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.80 levels ( 00.53 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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Likely triggers

  • The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are rising marginally at US $ 47.16 / barrel ( previous week US $ 46.48 / barrel ).

  • The FII inflows are positive with investments of Rs 630 Crs during Feb 7 - 10. That is likely to imbibe confidence among the bulls.

  • The F&O indicators point towards a rising open interest which shows a higher risk appetite among the bulls. The Nifty PCR is now at the 1.09 : 1. The traded volumes however have been lower.

  • The market breadth points towards a bullish undertone as the weekly figures remain positive. Of the entire transacted volume during the week on BSE & NSE, 18 % was transacted on downtick days. The remaining was initiated on positive market days. That is a sign of optimism.

  • The INR is sliding against the US $ and that will in turn firm up the technology counters. Being heavily weighted in the indices, the markets are likely to get a cause for cheer.

  • The overseas markets have been firm and are likely to have a trickle down effect on the domestic markets also.

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Technicals

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Your call of action

For stock specific recommendations please refer to our special edition " Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the "Flavours of the week".

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Have a profitable day.
 
Vijay L Bhambwani
Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.


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