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Feb 26, 2005

Markets range bound. Sensex slides 15 points

Lower volumes, negative breadth as players cautious ahead of budget

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	6585	6622	6515	6569	14.60
BSE - 200	882	891	872	883	01.28
NSE - 50	2055	2081	2036	2060	05.35
Dow Jones	10842  57	Nasdaq	2065  7	FTSE	5007  50
Advances	6950	Declines	9071	Put / Call trades - 64149 : 140593
FII Investments	Rs  7016 Crs Feb 1 - 24		Domestic Funds	Rs  21 Crs Feb 1 - 24

The value of shares advancing was Rs. 17,709 crores ( previous week Rs 23,914 Crs ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 15,314 crores ( previous week Rs 20,425 Crs ). This indicates a selling bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 10,830 Crores ( previous week Rs 21,196 Crs ). The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 22,314 Crores ( previous week Rs 23,311 Crs ).

The markets witnessed a lower volume week as values saw pressure at higher levels from a multitude of triggers. The f&o expiry being the first and the budget being a major factor dominating the trader psyche. The market breadth continued to remain negative and the lower volumes saw a truncated intra week movement in the indices as the benchmarks were range bound for the third week in a row. The Sensex was boosted by Bharti Tele, BHEL, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, ONGC, Reliance Inds and SBI. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Ambuja Cements, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, ICICI Bank, MTNL, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, Satyam Computers, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.65 levels ( 00.14 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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• The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are firm at US $ 51.49 / barrel ( previous week US $ 49.01 / barrel ).

• The FII inflows are continuing to remain positive as the inflows for this week are at Rs. 807 crs. It maybe noted that the domestic institutions have also turned net buyers in equities for the first time this month.

• The F&O indicators point towards a routine paring of positions on expiry and an increasing stake of the FII's in the segment.

• The market breadth points towards a weak scenario as the weekly BSE & NSE advance decline ratio is very negative and of the entire weekly traded volumes initiated, only 20 % was executed on uptick days. That shows a selling bias on the upsides for now.

• The budget will be the major domo trend determinator for the markets and players must take a re-look at the scenario after the event.

• The overseas markets have been positive after a strong GDP forecast for the US economy was announced. The Dow has ended near the 2005 highs. That is likely to see a feel good factor trickling down to the domestic markets also.

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Technicals

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Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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