The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

Apollo Hospitals - this private sector hospital and healthcare major is in an intermediate uptrend. The consolidation period between June 2002 and March 2003 saw the scrip remaining above the August 2001 lows. That shows a higher bottom formation and the recent top made in December 2003 is higher than the April 2002 highs. The pattern of higher tops and bottoms is now established. The MACD oscillator is in an uptrend and any breakout above the 193 mark will see an accelerated upmove. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Arvind Mills - This counter is displaying a high relative strength as the counter is in an uptrend. The stock is on the threshold of a breakout above the 65 levels. The stock is in an uptrend after the company underwent aggressive re-structuring and swapping debt to cut costs. The F&O segment has shown an optimistic outlook for the scrip as the price rise has been accompanied by rise in open interest. A confirmatory close above the 65 mark will be a buy trigger.

Balaji Telefilms - Recommended earlier in our edition dtd 26/07/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ), this counter has appreciated well since then. The media business is witnessing a higher rating from the investing community due to increased advertisement revenues due to an overall improvement in economic outlook.

Bajaj Auto - This recommendation has been one of our most profitable ones as the scrip was recommended right from 500 + levels and has doubled since then. The previous reco's were dtd - 09/08/03, 14/08/03, 30/08/03, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 04/10/03, 11/10/03 and 01/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). Any automobile portfolio is incomplete without this scrip in the list. The latest trigger is the robust sales growth expected in December and the export thrust which is likely to reflect in the bottomline. A very strong market out-performer, we recommend a buy on all declines.

Bharat Electronics - recommended earlier as far back as 19/07/03, 30/08/03, 06/09/03, 11/10/03 and 29/11/03 since the price was at 345 levels, we have picked up a multi bagger for our investors as the appreciation has been sharp and pronounced !! The scrip has broken out of a congestion zone and signalled a strong buy for the momentum traders.

Cipla - This stock was recommended by us as early as five months ago while quoting at Rs 800 !! The reco dates were 05/07/03, 12/07/03, 09/08/03, 23/08/03, 13/09/03 and 08/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock is in an intermediate uptrend and a market out-performer with a high RSC reading. A confirmatory breakout above the 1335 levels and a close above this level will ensure a higher objective.

E-serve - this back end software solutions provider has been a relatively low profile, high relative strength, market out-performer in the technology space. This stock has been a multi-bagger in the true sense of the word as there has been over 600 % appreciation in 2 years !! The stock is showing signs of a further appreciation as the technology sector appears poised for a bullish spurt. A confirmatory breakout above the previous congestion levels will be a signal for fresh entry on the counter. We recommend a buy above that break-out.

Glaxo - This is another scrip which we have picked at significantly lower levels of 380 vide our reco's dtd 05/07/03, 19/07/03, 14/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 13/09/03, 20/09/03 and 11/10/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). What makes this stock idea endearing is the fact that the company is the largest MNC in the segment, with the largest distributing network. Having re-structured operations by selling the Worli plant and implementing a VRS, the company is well geared to reap the benfits of the EMR regime from 2005 onwards as per WTO norms. We re-iterate our view that this counter is likely to hit big time in the next year.

Grasim - This cement major is in a major uptrend as the chart indicates. Recommended earlier vide our editions dtd 09/08/03, 04/10/03, 01/11/03 and 13/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ) when the stock was well below 700 levels, the stock has been a rich catch. The stock has seldom closed below the 30 day SMA and that makes this an attractive buy - especially above the 960 mark, where a higher tops and bottoms formation would be confirmed. Last weeks reco of the scrip zooming higher above the 950 mark has been justified profitably.

India Cements - This small priced cement manufacturer is showing signs of an uptrend as the stock is making higher bottoms and tops after a 5 week period of consolidation. The oscillators are pointing towards a bullishness as the MACD has managed to stay above the equilibrium line for 6 months now. A confirmatory upmove above the 44 mark will be a conclusive signal to buy.

Infosys - this software bellweather is likely to be the biggest beneficiary in the upbeat US markets after the capture of Saddam Hussein as the US $ firms up and technology companies see a feel-good-factor due to stable forex management. We have been recommending this scrip ever since it signalled a breakout above the 3900 levels and has appreciated handsomely. The recommendations were dtd 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 06/09/03, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 11/10/03, 18/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03 and 13/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). Last week we had predicted a level of 5200 which was successfully achieved. The scrip is making higher tops and bottoms on the weekly chart and has signalled a fresh breakout above the 5265 mark. The pre-result speculative rally will help the sentiments further. We recommend a buy.

Indian Oil Corporation - This scrip was recommended vide our edition dtd 05/10/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ) when it was quoting at Rs 385 levels. There has been a decent appreciation since then and there is a scope for fresh appreciation due to the permission to sell cross holdings in oil & gas PSU's as also a hike in petroleum prices. The economic recovery is likely to see higher offtake which is a good indicator for the bottomline. We recommend a buy for the patient and discerning investors.

Mah & Mah - We have been recommending this stock since it broke out above the 148 mark and the previous reco dates were 05/07/03, 12/07/03, 19/07/03, 09/08/03, 13/09/03, 27/09/03, 18/10/03, 26/10/03, 01/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). This scrip has been one of our more profitable recommendations and continues to remain a favoured one. A breakout is expected above a closing of 366 with higher volumes. A buy is recommended above the breakout.

Reliance - this scrip has quite simply been the most prolific recommendation and also one of the most profitable since months. We have been repeatedly advocating that this scrip is capable of leading the market rally from the front and our expectations have been fulfilled. Previous reco dates have been 05/07/03, 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 09/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 06/09/03, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 4/10/03, 11/10/03, 26//10/03, 01/11/03 and 08/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The scrip has signalled a breakout above it's previous congestion levels above 510 and has triggered a buy for the swing trader. The stock is trading at it's all time high and is likely to appreciate further.

Rolta India - This second rung software counter is consolidating at the present levels after a sharp run upwards in the recent past. The 102 levels would be a minor support and as long as the counter remains above this level, expect a firm undertone. The scrip is likely to move up only after a confirmatory breakout above the 113 levels. Buy on this confirmation only.

Satyam Computers - This software major is likely to be a big beneficiary of the bullishness in the US markets - especially after the capture of Saddam Hussein. Last weeks reco of buying at opening prices of Monday Dec 15, 2003 was highly profitable as the target was reached effortlessly. Earlier reco dates are 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 11/10/03, 08/11/03 and 13/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock has a good support at the 30 day SMA which is currently at the 340 levels. A good medium risk buy for the slightly adventurous trader.

Shipping Corporation - this shipping PSU major is in a major uptrend as the outlook for the entire industry is upbeat. The stock gets historical support at it's 30 day SMA which is a rough and ready indicator for traders. The chart pattern is suggestive of higher tops and bottoms and the stock is currently under going a consolidation phase. Any breakout above this congestion level of 175 will see an accelerated upmove in a firm market. Buying recommended on this counter.

Telco - This scrip has been recommended frequently by us since 6 months and has performed exceedingly well too. The trigger has been high market share in it's segment, good exports and improved prospects due to a bouncing economy. The passenger and commercial vehicles sales are firm and the investor attention is constant on the counter. The previous reco dates were - 19/07/03, 09/08/03, 30/08/03, 27/09/03, 08/11/03 and 29/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock has signalled a fresh buy above the 435 and swing traders can buy afresh.

Tisco - This steel major has been a frequent feature of this newsletter and has also returned good profits to traders and investors alike. The scrip has broken out of a congestion band is headed higher in the near term. We have recommended this stock in our earlier editions dtd - 19/07/03, 06/09/03, 27/09/03, 04/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03, 29/11/03 and 13/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The trigger is higher price realisations and offtake in the domestic and international markets. Last weeks recommendation of buying above 380 has proved to be highly profitable. Recommended for delivery players as well as traders.

Tata Power - This scrip is in a major uptrend as we have been advocating in our earlier editions dated -11/10/03, 18/10/03, 23/11/03 and 30/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The economic outlook being brighter, topline growth is expected. The reforms in the power sector, especially in the direct selling to the consumer is a positive trigger for the counter, which is already in a new trading zone. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Zee Telefilms - this counter was recommended on 26/10/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ) and has appreciated marginally as the stock has been a market under-performer recently. As long as the scrip remains above the 155 mark, expect the upward momentum to remain intact. The media sectors re-rating is likely to see this scrip getting higher valuations also. Buying recommended for the cash segment players.

BSE Sensex - Last week, we predicted a fresh recovery in the latter half of last week after a conclusive close above the 5350. That has been proven accurate as the Sensex has closed above the 5500 mark. We forecast a level of 5625 as a achievable target for the Sensex in the coming week. On the lower side, expect good support at the 5450 levels. Remain long.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - last week, we had advocated that the Nifty was expected to show strength. We predicted a 1730 - 1740 level on the Nifty, which was achieved. The fresh target for the index is at the 1825 levels in the days ahead. On the lower side, expect support at the 1730 levels in the week ahead.

Your call of action - We advocate fresh trades on the Nifty on the long side only on declines that too in an indirect fashion by selling puts or buying calls to be on the safer side. Sell the January 1680 puts at a premium of Rs 16 or above.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - This old economy benchmark index measures the outlook on the New York stock exchange. Last week we had advocated resistance at the 10,300 - 10,400 levels. The Dow Jones has almost seen 10300 levels and has room for a fresh 200 point upmove. Expect the 10,000 levels to be a good short term base for this index in the near term.

Dow Jones - Weekly chart

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Nasdaq - This new economy benchmark index measures the outlook on the Nasdaq exchange. This index has made a new 22 month high recently and has been advocated by us as making a saucer formation. The relative strength of this index is turning lower than that of the Dow. Last week, we forecast that the 1900 levels will be a short term support for the markets. The Nasdaq saw weekly lows of 1902 !!. On the upsides, expect resistance at the 1995 levels. Only above the 2000 mark, will the index show any signs of revival. The outlook has turned positive after Saddam's capture and improved employment data.

Nasdaq - Weekly chart

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

FTSE - This index measures the outlook on the London stock exchange. As we have been forecasting a 4460 level resistance, this index is unable to surpass that point on a closing basis and show any short term strength. The support is at the 4300 levels. Our outlook is positive for this index as the oscillators are pointing towards an upmove. Expect the rally to see 4600 levels.

FTSE - Weekly chart

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio has climbed to the 0.34 : 1 levels and the outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have increased significantly. The FII investments are positive and pre-result outlook is positive.
The news of positive employment data will help the US $ and in turn the technology sector in the domestic markets. That should boost the indices.
Trades must be executed in small volumes
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in the stocks mentioned above.