The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Flavours of the week                                                             Dec 28, 2003

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

ACC - This cement major was recommended by us vide our earlier editions dtd 14/06/03, 19/07/03, 02/08/03, 09/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 18/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03 and 29/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The chart shows a breakout above the previous resistance levels and the oscillators pointing towards a possibility of a fresh upmove. The stock has turned into a market out-performer recently and a further appreciation is not ruled out. We recommend this scrip for a patient trader.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a level of Rs 250 only with a stop loss at 238 and a target of 265 / 270 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the January futures above 250 levels and maintain a stop loss at 244 levels. Expect a price of 260 - 262 in the near term. Options players can buy the January calls at a strike price of 255 and at a premium of Rs 10 - 11

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 1500 shares, F&O margins approx Rs 1,10,000 ( margins subject to change daily )

Apollo Hospitals - this private sector hospital and healthcare major is in an intermediate uptrend. We had recommended this scrip last week above 195 levels ( click here to view our previous editions ), which has been triggered. The consolidation period between June 2002 and March 2003 saw the scrip remaining above the August 2001 lows. That shows a higher bottom formation and the recent top made in December 2003 is higher than the April 2002 highs. The pattern of higher tops and bottoms is now established. The MACD oscillator is in an uptrend and any breakout above the 193 mark will see an accelerated upmove. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 195 only with a stop loss at 173 and a target of 215 / 220 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - n/a

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - n/a

Arvind Mills - This counter is displaying a high relative strength as the counter is in an uptrend. Last week, we had recommended a buy above the 65 levels as the stock was on the threshold of a breakout above these levels ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock is in an uptrend after the company underwent aggressive re-structuring and swapping debt to cut costs. The F&O segment has shown an optimistic outlook for the scrip as the price rise has been accompanied by rise in open interest. A confirmatory close above the 65 mark is the buy trigger.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 66 only with a stop loss at 61 and a target of 72 / 74 be maintained in the near term.

• Aggressive F&O traders - buy the January futures above a price of 65 and maintain a stop loss at the 62 levels. Expect to book profits at the 70 levels. Options traders may buy the January calls at a strike of Rs 70, paying a maximum premium of Rs 2.75 /-

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 4600 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 60,000 ( margins subject to change daily)

BHEL - This PSU electricals major was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd 05/07/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 20/09/03, 18/10/03, 01/11/03 and 08/11/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock is in a major uptrend as the stock has been making new highs consistently and is showing tremendous relative strength on the charts. The company has bagged large orders and is a hefty dividend payer. A breakout is expected above the 497 levels which will be a buy trigger for the counter.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 496 only with a stop loss at 483 and a target of 525 / 530 be maintained before month end.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the January futures above a close of 503 and maintain a stop loss at the 493 levels. Expect a price target of 515 in the short / medium term. Options players may contemplate buying the January 500 calls at a premium of Rs 18.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 1200. F&O margins approx 1,00,000 ( margins subject to change daily )

Bank of India - this PSU banking major was recommended earlier vide our editions dtd 18/10/03 and 26/10/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The chart pattern is suggestive of higher tops and bottoms formations and the 30 week SMA is a good support on the short term charts. The stock is a market performer and a clsoing above the 65 levels should see a decent appreciation of 8 - 10 % in the near term.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 65 only with a stop loss at 62 and a target of 70 be maintained before month end.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the January futures above a price of 65 with a stop loss at the 62 levels. Expect a price target of 69 in the near term. 

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 3800 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 43,000 ( Margins subject to change daily )

Dr Reddy - This stock was recommended vide our earlier edition dtd 06/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock is consolidating higher and has tremendous relative strength on the charts. The scrip is making higher bottoms and tops and a breakout is expected above the 1465 levels. The oscillators are pointing towards a bullish undertone. We recommend a buy.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 1465 only with a stop loss at 1400 and a target of 1600 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the January futures above the 1470 levels with a stop-loss at the 1420 levels. Maintain a price target of 1540 - 1550 in the short / medium term.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 400 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 97,000 ( margins subject to change daily )

HPCL - this PSU refining major was recommended earlier vide our editions dtd - 07/06/03, 21/06/03, 28/06/03, 05/07/03, 09/08/03, 20/09/03, 04/10/03, 18/10/03, 01/11/03 and 13/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). This counter is turning into a strong market out-performer and is about to breakout above a major congestion level of 450. Buying is recommended above this level.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 450 only with a stop loss at 430 and a target of 500 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the January futures above a price of 447 with a stop loss at the 438 levels and expect to book profits at the 458 levels.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 1300 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 1,40,000 ( margins subject to change daily )

ICICI Bank - This private sector new age bank was recommended vide our editions dtd 02/08/03, 23/08/03, 27/09/03, 04/10/03, 26/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03, 06/12/03 and 13/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). Having appreciated tremendously since our original recommendation above 186 & 212, this stock is consolidating before a fresh upmove. The 290 levels will be a short term hurdle above which the stock enters a new zone. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 290 only with a stop loss at 280 and a target of 305 be maintained before month end.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the January futures above a level of 291 and maintain with a stop loss at the 284 levels. Expect a target of 304. Options players can buy the January calls at a strike price of 290 at a premium of Rs 13

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 1400 shares. F&O margins approx 75000 ( margins subject to change daily )

India Cements - Last week, we recommended this counter above the 44 mark ( click here to view our previous editions ) and the trade is in the money already. This small priced cement manufacturer is showing signs of an uptrend as the stock is making higher bottoms and tops after a 5 week period of consolidation. The oscillators are pointing towards a bullishness as the MACD has managed to stay above the equilibrium line for 6 months now.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate holding the purchased stock with a stop loss at the 41 levels and a target of 50 / 52 be maintained. Fresh buying can be initiated at 45 levels with same stop loss and profit targets.

• Aggressive F&O traders - n/a.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - n/a

Infosys - this software bellweather is likely to be the biggest beneficiary in the upbeat US markets as the US $ firms up and technology companies see a feel-good-factor due to stable forex management. We have been recommending this scrip ever since it signalled a breakout above the 3900 levels and has appreciated handsomely. The recommendations were dtd 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 06/09/03, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 11/10/03, 18/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03, 13/12/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). Last week we had predicted a level of 5450 which was successfully achieved. The scrip is making higher tops and bottoms on the weekly chart and the pre-result speculative rally will help the sentiments further. We recommend a buy.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above 5370 levels and suggest a stop loss at the 5240 levels. Expect profit taking at the 5550 - 5600 levels before results.

• Aggressive F&O traders - buy the January futures above a price of 5450 and maintain a stop loss at the 5350 levels. Expect to book profits at the 5600 levels. Options traders can buy the January calls at a strike price of 5500 at a suggested premium of Rs 200.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 100 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 1,25,000 ( margins subject to change daily )

Mah & Mah -  We have been recommending this stock since it broke out above the 148 mark and the previous reco dates were 05/07/03, 12/07/03, 19/07/03, 09/08/03, 13/09/03, 27/09/03, 18/10/03, 26/10/03, 01/11/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). This scrip has been one of our more profitable recommendations and continues to remain a favoured one. A breakout is confirmed above a closing of 366 with higher volumes. A buy is recommended.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 366 only with a stop loss at 348 and a target of 390 / 395 be maintained in the near term.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Last weeks trade of buying above 367 and taking profits at 382 levels has been highly profitable. For fresh trades, buy the January futures above a price of 380 and maintain a stop loss at the 371 levels. Expect to book profits at the 390 - 392 levels. Options traders can buy the January calls at a strike price of 400 at a premium of Rs 10. 

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 2500 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 1,70,000 ( margins subject to change daily)

Ranbaxy - this domestic pharmaceuticals major was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd - 07/06/03, 14/06/03, 28/06/03, 05/07/03, 12/07/03, 19/07/03, 23/08/03, 01/11/03, 06/12/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock has dipped after the media report of a management tussle which should be good entry point for the discerning investor. We recommend a buy on all declines on the counter.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter at a price of Rs 1095 only with a stop loss at 1060 and a target of 1150 - 1175 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - buy the January futures above a price of 1100 and maintain a stop loss at the 1070 levels. Expect to book profits at the 1150 levels.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 800 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 1,50,000 ( margins subject to change daily)

Reliance - this scrip has quite simply been the most prolific recommendation and also one of the most profitable since months. We have been repeatedly advocating that this scrip is capable of leading the market rally from the front and our expectations have been fulfilled. Previous reco dates have been 05/07/03, 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 09/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 06/09/03, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 4/10/03, 11/10/03, 26//10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The scrip has signalled a breakout above it's previous congestion levels above 512 and has triggered a buy for the swing trader. The stock is trading at it's all time high and is likely to appreciate further.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate holding the earlier delivery purchases above 510 and fresh buying into the counter above a level of Rs 530 only with a stop loss at 518 and a target of 545 / 550 be maintained before the month end.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Last weeks purchases above the 516 mark has yielded the profit target of 532. Traders may buy the January futures at a price of 530 and maintain a stop loss at the 520 levels. Expect to book profits at the - 545 / 550 levels. Options players can buy the January calls at a strike of 530 and a premium of Rs 20

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 600 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 75,000 ( margins subject to change daily)

Rolta India - This second rung software counter is consolidating at the present levels after a sharp run upwards in the recent past. The 106 levels would be a minor support and as long as the counter remains above this level, expect a firm undertone. The scrip is likely to move up only after a confirmatory breakout above the 117 levels. Buy on this confirmation only.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 117 only with a stop loss at 106 and a target of 128 & 131 be maintained in a few weeks time.

• Aggressive F&O traders - n/a

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - n/a

Satyam Computers - This software major is likely to be a big beneficiary of the bullishness in the US markets. Earlier reco dates are 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 11/10/03, 08/11/03, 13/12/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock has a good support at the 30 day SMA which is currently at the 340 levels. A good medium risk buy for the slightly adventurous trader - above a breakout level of 366.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we do not advocate excessive delivery based buying into the counter as our choice would be Infosys in the sector. However, die-hard Satyam fans may buy above the 366 levels and maintain a stop loss at the 348 levels and hope to book profits at the 375 mark.

• Aggressive F&O traders - buy the January futures above a price of 368 and maintain a stop loss at the 361 levels. Expect to book profits at the 372 levels. Options players may buy the January 360 calls at a premium of Rs 18.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 1200 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 1,30,000 ( margins subject to change daily )

SBI - This PSU banking major was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd 05/07/03, 19/07/03, 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 09/08/03, 23/08/03, 18/10/03, 26/10/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock is a market out-performer with very high relative strength. The 13 week SMA has been a good support base for this scrip and the stock has signalled a breakout above the 512 levels. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - Last week's reco of booking profits on purchases above 510 at the 525 levels has been highly profitable. We advocate fresh delivery based buying into the counter above levels of Rs 515 only with a stop loss at 490 and a target of 550 - 565 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - buy the January futures above a price of 525 and maintain a stop loss at the 516 levels. Expect to book profits at the 550 levels in the short / medium term. Options players can buy the 520 January calls at a premium of Rs 20.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 1,000 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 1,55,000 ( margins subject to change daily)

Telco - This scrip has been recommended frequently by us since 6 months and has performed exceedingly well too. The trigger has been high market share in it's segment, good exports and improved prospects due to a bouncing economy. The passenger and commercial vehicles sales are firm and the investor attention is constant on the counter. The previous reco dates were - 19/07/03, 09/08/03, 30/08/03, 27/09/03, 08/11/03, 29/11/03 and 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ). The stock has signalled a fresh buy above the 435 and swing traders can buy afresh. The scrip is in a new trading zone and little, if any, resistance will be encountered on the upsides.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter as long as a close of above Rs 435 is maintained. Hold with a stop loss at 418 and a target of 460 / 465 be maintained before budget.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Last weeks reco of buying January futures above 435 and booking profits at 446 has been highly profitable. Fresh buying should be contemplated at slightly lower levels of 442, with a stop loss at the 437 and a target be maintained at 452. Options traders can buy the January calls at a strike price of 450 and a premium of 14 - 15.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - 3300 shares. F&O margins approx Rs 3,40,000 ( margins subject to change daily)

Zee Telefilms - this counter was recommended on 26/10/03 & 20/12/03 ( click here to view our previous editions ) and has appreciated marginally as the stock has been a market under-performer recently. As long as the scrip remains above the 155 mark, expect the upward momentum to remain intact. The media sectors re-rating is likely to see this scrip getting higher valuations also. Buying recommended for the cash segment players.

Your call of action - 

• Investors / cash segment players - we advocate delivery based buying into the counter above a close of Rs 155 only with a stop loss at 142 and a target of 180 be maintained in the near term.

• Aggressive F&O traders - n/a.

• Fixed income strategy - n/a

• Derivatives contract size - n/a

BSE Sensex - Last week, we predicted a flevel of 5625 as a achievable target for the Sensex. That target has been achieved and the index is at a 47 month high. On the lower side, expect good support at the 5550 levels. Remain long with a target of 4820.

Your  call  of  action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading  the Nifty 50  instead.

Nifty 50 - last week, we had advocated that the Nifty was expected to show strength. We predicted a 1825 level on the Nifty, which was achieved ( click here to view our previous editions ). The fresh target for the index is at the 1860 - 1870 levels in the days ahead. On the lower side, expect support at the 1760 levels in the week ahead.

Your  call of  action - We advocate fresh trades on the Nifty on the long side only on declines that too in an indirect fashion by selling puts or buying calls to be on the safer side. Sell the January 1720 puts at a premium of Rs 9 or above.

Have a  profitable week.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The  author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and  invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI  disclosure :-  The  author has  no  positions in the  stocks mentioned  above.

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While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s