The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

Arvind Mills - This textile major has been recommended by us vide our earlier editions dated - 01/11/03, 20/12/03, 27/12/03 and 17/01/04. Click here to view previous editions. The scrip has seen a sharp fall in the last month and has taken support at it's 50 week SMA, which is a positive indicator. The scrip is one of top 3 volatile counters as per the NSE data available with our derivatives special newsletter. That makes a bounce-back a very pronounced one, especially if the broader markets are bullish too. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Gujarat Ambuja Cements - this counter has been recommended earlier vide our editions dated - 07/06/03, 14/06/03, 12/07/03, 19/07/03, 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 09/08/03, 25/10/03, 01/11/03, 13/12/03 and 10/01/04. Click here to view previous editions. The stock has been one of our better performing recommendations and is also a market out-performer in relative strength comparative terms. The stock has managed to close above the 13 week SMA and has bounced back from that crucial support level. After the recent consolidation phase, it is likely that the scrip is going to signal an upward breakout - subject to confirmation by the price graph.

ICICI Bank - This banking major has been a regular feature in our recommendations and has out-performed even our bullish projections. Previous recommendations were made on 02/08/03, 23/08/03, 27/09/03, 04/10/03, 26/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03, 06/12/03, 13/12/03, 27/12/03, 03/01/04 and 07/02/04. Click here to view previous editions. Being a new-age private sector bank, the growth rate has been superlative and the loan portfolio is far above average. The banks e-enabled thrust and aggressive capturing of the market share has been the main trigger in the bullishness. The recent upgradation by international agencies of the Indian banking system is good news for this company as it can avail of cheaper capital in the overseas markets. The announcement of the mega IPO is the prime cause for the sharp fall in the price due to worries on dividend yields. The is a buy on declines.

Indian Oil Corporation - this counter has been in the limelight due to the re-rating of the sector and PSU's on the whole. The stock was recommended vide our newsletter dated 04/10/03 & 20/12/03 Click here to view previous editions. The scrip us overcoming it's congestion zone and any sustained closing above the 500 mark will see a new upmove on the counter. We recommend a buy on the scrip.

L&T - This cement major has been a prolific recommendation in our newsletter and was recommended on 12/07/03, 19/07/03, 09/08/03, 27/09/03, 18/10/03 and 01/11/03. Click here to view previous editions. The stock had corrected sharply lower in the recent volatility and showing signs of stability / consolidation at the present levels. Should the scrip signal a breakout above the 30 week SMA, expect a fresh upmove. The oscillators are supporting the probability of a upmove.

NIIT - This software applications and education major was recommended earlier vide our newsletters dated - 14/08/03, 11/10/03, 01/11/03 & 08/11/03 Click here to view previous editions. This scrip has been highly volatile and is one of the top 5 volatile counters for over a fortnight as per NSE figures. That makes this counter a traders delight. We recommend a buy above the immediate congestion zone as of 215, as the oscillators too are pointing towards a possibility of an upmove.

Ranbaxy - This counter has been another frequent recommendation and is a strong market out-performer. We had recommended this scrip vide our editions dated - 07/06/03, 14/06/03, 28/06/03, 05/07/03, 12/07/03, 19/07/03, 23/08/03, 01/11/03, 06/12/03, 20/12/03, 03/01/04 & 17/01/04 Click here to view previous editions. The stock is one of the top 5 outstanding futures long positions as on Friday and that speaks volumes about the bullish expectations on the counter. The scrip is turning higher without testing / violating it's 200 day SMA and that is a positive sign. The oscillators are pointing towards a likelihood of a short rally.

Reliance - this counter has been advocated by us as being capable of leading any rally from the front and the performance has been upto the mark. The earlier recommendations were dated 07/06/03, 14/06/03, 21/06/03, 02/08/03, 04/08/03, 23/08/03, 30/08/03, 06/09/03, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 04/10/03, 11/10/03, 26/10/03, 01/11/03, 08/11/03, 20/12/03, 27/12/03, 03/01/04, 17/01/04, 24/01/04 & 07/02/04 Click here to view previous editions. The scrip is building a strong base at the 580 mark and is likely to encounter resistance at the 600 mark in the near term. Once the 600 levels are convincingly surpassed, expect a new top in the making. We recommend a buy on the counter.

Satyam Computers - This software major has been recommended by us earlier vide our editions dated 14/06/2003, 20/09/03, 27/09/03, 11/10/03, 08/11/03, 13/12/03, 20/12/03, 27/12/04 and 03/01/04 Click here to view previous editions. The scrip is showing attempts to rally after recent volatility and is likely to see an accelerated upmove above the 343 mark. We recommend a buy on the counter.

SBI -this banking major was recommended earlier vide our editions dated 05/07/03, 19/07/03, 26/07/03, 02/08/03, 09/08/03, 23/08/03, 18/10/03, 26/10/03, 20/12/03 & 27/12/03 Click here to view previous editions. The stock has been accurately predicted by us as having likely supports at the 33.38 % and then the 50 % retracement patterns. Currently, the counter faces short term hurdles at the 635 mark, once a conclusive closing above this level is achieved, expect a larger upmove.

BSE Sensex - Last week, we predicted that should the Sensex cross the 5890 with high volumes and a positive market breadth, expect the 5950 - 6000 levels to be a reality. That forecast has been achieved as the Sensex closed above 6000 levels again. The 5925 support should not be violated, or a bigger fall upto the 5860 can occur. As long as the Sensex stays above the 5987 mark, expect the upmove to continue.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - last week, we had advocated that the Nifty was expected to rally above the 1890 levels. Only above a conclusive closing over 1890 levels, with higher volumes and a positive breadth, will the next upward target be achieved. That has been justified as the Nifty has shown a bullish close. The next levels are the 1925 / 1932 band which seems like an achievable target. Till then, we expect major support to be seen at the 1850 levels.

Your call of action - We advocate fresh trades on the Nifty on the long side only on declines that too in an indirect fashion by selling puts or buying calls to be on the safer side. Sell the February 1750 puts at a premium of Rs 7 - 8 or above. More aggressive traders can buy the Feb futures at current prices and hedging the position by selling the Feb 2000 calls at a premium of Rs 10 - 12.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - This old economy benchmark index measures the outlook on the New York stock exchange. Last week we had advocated resistance at the 10,750 levels ( click here to view our previous editions ) which proved a major hurdle for the markets. The Dow Jones has retraced from the 10747 mark !!! The index is likely to remain under pressure till it surpasses the 10750 levels with heavy volumes. Expect the 10,500 levels to be a good short term base for this index in the near term.

Dow Jones - Weekly chart

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Nasdaq - This new economy benchmark index measures the outlook on the Nasdaq exchange. This index has made a new 30 month high ( highest since July ' 01) recently and has been advocated by us as making a saucer formation. The relative strength of this index is surpassing the Dow. Last week, we forecast that the 2000 levels will be a short term support and the index took support at the 2050 mark ( click here to view our previous editions ). The 2000 levels would remain a good base for this index. This level has been proved accurate, and only above a 2175 close, expect the next resistance at the 2240 - 2250 levels.

Nasdaq - Weekly chart

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

FTSE - This index measures the outlook on the London stock exchange. As we have been forecasting a 4300 level support, this index is making a base in the near term and showing short term weakness ( click here to view our previous editions ). Our outlook though mildly positive for this index is also that of an under-performer as compared to the US markets. The oscillators are pointing towards a fall at present levels - only above a conclusive close above 4560 levels, will a new rally start.

FTSE - Weekly chart

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio is climbing and is currently at the 0.31 : 1 levels and the outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have increased slightly. The FII investments are continuing steadily.
There is offloading at higher levels in stock futures. That indicates a cautious approach as long positions in individual stocks is being hedged by Nifty shorts.
The current week is crucial for the markets as there are big IPO's and therefore we expect a shift of focus & resources to the primary markets.
The index heavy-weights are showing strength again. This in turn will boost the indices and cause a feel good factor. The only worry is that this upbeat sentiment should continue.
Trades must be executed in small volumes due to the higher volatility expected. Trade fewer counters and conserve cash for future opportunities.
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in any securities mentioned above.