The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

ACC - This cement major was recommended earlier vide our editions dtd Oct 23, Nov 21, Dec 05, Dec 12, Dec 26, 2004 and Jan 01, 2005. Click here to view previous files. The scrip has exhibited a head and shoulder formation on the monthly chart and has closed at it's lifetime high on a closing basis. The highest point reached on April 1992 will be an immediate resistance. Technical analysts may note that the head and shoulder formation is a measuring move and it is possible to make projections going forward. The upmove is accompanied by relatively lower volumes and the oscillators are pointing higher. We recommend a buy on major declines for the patient traders / investors.

BHEL - this PSU electricals major is in a major uptrend and was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Oct 10, Dec 12 and Dec 19, 2004. Click here to view previous files. The scrip has hit a new lifetime high this week and retraced lower. The scrip has a strong chart formation and has a very high relative strength of 780 ( 100 = base ). The oscillators are showing a bullish trend and traded volumes are perking up. The stock has positive news-flow and is a buy on declines.

Canara Bank - this PSU banking major was recommended earlier vide our edition dtd Jan 01, 2005 and has appreciated as per expectations before retracing lower. Click here to view previous files. The coming week will see focused buying across banking stocks due to the FM's announcements on banking reforms. Technical analysts may note how the scrip has taken support at it's 30 day SMA and bounced higher. We advocate a buy for the higher risk appetite short term traders.

HDFC Bank - this banking major was recommended earlier vide our editions dtd. Oct 03, Nov 07, Dec 12 & Dec 26, 2004. Click here to view previous files. The scrip was recommended at the 400 levels and has flared up significantly in a short while. The scrip is a strong market out-performer and has a very high relative strength of 1450 ( 100 = base ). The scrip has made higher tops and bottoms formations and entered a new trading zone in the last fortnight. We expect a minor downward correction after which the scrip is likely to resume it's rally again. A buy is recommended on declines.

Mah & Mah - this scrip has been one of the most prolific recommendations and also one of the more profitable ones in the recent times. We recommended this stock vide our earlier editions Dtd Nov 14, Nov 27, Dec 05, Dec 12, Dec 19, Dec 26, 2004 and Jan 01, 2005. Click here to view previous files. The scrip has managed to hit a lifetime high on a closing basis on the monthly charts. The all time highs recorded were in Jan / Feb 2000 at the 665 levels. We remind our investors of a flag formation on the charts and the high relative strength of 257 ( 100 = base ). Our target of Rs 575 - 600 holds in the medium term. We re-affirm a buy on declines for the discerning investors / traders.

NTPC - this PSU power major has been repeatedly recommended by us via sms, daily editions and our flavours editions dtd Dec 26, 2004 and Jan 02, 2005. Click here to view previous files. After completing a target of 90, the scrip has declined to its 32 % retracement levels of 83 levels. We feel a deeper correction to the 50 % retracement levels may see the stock testing the 80 - 81 levels where it becomes a good buy again.

Reliance Inds - this scrip has been in the news for all the wrong reasons and has created more than a flutter in the markets. Being very heavily weighted in the indices, it has the ability to swing indices with it's moves. The scrip was covered in our earlier editions dtd Oct 23, Oct 31, Nov 21, Nov 27 and Dec 05, 2004. Click here to view previous files. The scrip is attempting a breakout from it's bearish channel and will clear a short term hurdle once it closes above the 551 levels with higher volumes. The oscillators too point towards bullishness and we recommend a buy in small lots for the higher risk profile traders.

SBI - this PSU banking major was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Oct 17, 2004. Click here to view previous files. The banking sector is likely to be in the limelight in anticipation of the FM's announcement on banking reforms and the scrip also is on a threshold of a technical support provided by the 30 day SMA. Technical analysts will note how the scrip is below it's 13 day SMA, which it must clear with higher volumes to signal a fresh upmove. We recommend a trading / speculative buy on the counter on a breakout.

TCS - this technology bell weather was recommended by us repeatedly to our subscribers via sms, daily editions and the flavours editions since it quoted below the 1000 mark ! The earlier recommendations were dtd Oct 17, Nov 14, Nov 27, Dec 05, Dec 12, 2004 and Jan 02, 2005. Click here to view previous files. This scrip is making classic signs of a bullish scrip - higher tops and bottoms, rising moving averages and healthy traded volumes. We recommend a buy on this counter for the discerning investor / trader.

Tata Tea - this FMCG major was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 27, Dec 05 and Dec 19, 2004 and has been a profitable trade. Click here to view previous files. The scrip is making classic higher tops and bottoms on the weekly charts and has bucked the overall market trend in the previous week, with higher volumes. The oscillators are pointing towards a bullishness in the undertone and the scrip enjoys a high relative strength of 157 ( 100 = base ). Technical analysts may note that the scrip has cleared a congestion band after it closed above the 465 levels and is currently trading near it's March 2000 highs. We recommend a buy on this counter.

Union Bank - this scrip has zoomed up in the recent past and has had a spectacular relative strength vis-a-vis the indices. The scrip has seen a minor recovery in the last trading session and is expected to recover faster once a closing above the 109 levels is achieved with higher volumes. We recommend a speculative buy on the counter for the higher risk traders.

BSE Sensex - the Sensex has come below it's 30 day SMA for the first time after Oct 20, 2004. The immediate support for the Sensex is at the 6325 levels and the upsides will see selling pressure at the 6510 levels. Only once the Sensex manages to close above the 6510 mark for a few sessions with higher volumes, will a new upmove commence.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - the Nifty is showing signs of stabilising at the current levels and the retracement chart shows a one third retracement support at near the 1980 levels. If that support is violated, we do not foresee a greater fall below the 1962 levels in the coming week. Upsides will see selling pressure at the 2038 / 2054 levels where long positions are likely to be reduced by short term players. Our outlook remains positive and we maintain a buy on declines view.

Your call of action - We advocate a buy on declines view and feel traders may buy the Nifty Jan futures ( quoting at Rs 4 premium to cash ) at the 2004 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 1980 mark. Expect profit taking at the 2032 levels in the short term and 2044 in the medium term time frame.

CNX IT - the CNX IT index has been advocated by us as a weak chart formation has slipped below the 13 & 30 day SMA's and is showing support at the 2775 levels. We expect selling pressure at the 2910 levels where supply is likely to result in a halt in the upmove if any. For the coming week, watch the 2775 levels closely for a closing below this level.

Your call of action - Since the CNX IT futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - this US index has retraced from it's resistance point at the 10850 mark and closed near it's fortnightly lows. We expect a good support at the 10475 levels where the fall should stem. On the upsides, watch the 10740 levels in the coming week.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

ACC I BHEL I Canara Bank I HDFC Bank I Mah & Mah I NTPC I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Tata Tea I Union Bank I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Nasdaq - the Nasdaq exhibits a similar chart pattern as the Dow, only the fall is much more pronounced. The 2070 levels will be the immediate support and the index is now trading at the 5 week lows. Upsides are likely to be met with resistance and we advocate a weak outlook on this index. That will have a bearing on the domestic technology counters. The upsides are likely to be capped at the 2144 levels.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

ACC I BHEL I Canara Bank I HDFC Bank I Mah & Mah I NTPC I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Tata Tea I Union Bank I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

FTSE - this UK index is showing signs of relative out-performance as compared to the US indices. The index has closed above it's congestion levels and hit a new high since July 2002. We foresee a support at the 4755 levels in the coming week, with resistance at the 4920 on the upsides.

Your call of action - Since Indian investors are not allowed to trade in overseas markets, this is a pure academic study.

ACC I BHEL I Canara Bank I HDFC Bank I Mah & Mah I NTPC I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Tata Tea I Union Bank I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio is climbing and is currently at the 0.24 : 1 levels and the outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have shown a qualitative increase. The FII investments are turning negative after a few months of robust inflows.
There is offloading at higher levels in stock futures. That indicates a cautious approach as long positions in individual stocks is being hedged by Nifty shorts.
The current week is crucial for the markets as the big fall in the indices should see a corrective upmove, failing which, margin pressures and panic sales can occur.
The index heavy-weights are showing strain. This in turn will drag the indices and cause a profit taking at higher levels.
Trades must be executed in minimal lots only due to the higher volatility expected. Trade fewer counters and conserve cash for future opportunities.
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in any securities mentioned above.