Weekly market view.             Jan 01, 2005

 
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Jan 01, 2005

Markets log record highs. Sensex gains 105 points.

Higher volumes, positive breadth as the year ends on bullish note.

Weekly statistics

Indices Open High Low Close Change
BSE - 30 6484 6617 6469 6602 104.63
BSE - 200 871 888 868 886 15.02
NSE - 50 2061 2088 2046 2080 17.80
Dow Jones 10783  44 Nasdaq 2175  15 FTSE

4814  16

Advances 8433 Declines 7299 Put / Call trades - 44084 : 159710
FII Investments Rs  5807 Crs Dec 1 - 30 Domestic Funds Rs  365 Crs Dec 1 - 30

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 32,769 crores ( previous week Rs 32,448 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 15,019 crores  ( previous week Rs 13,021 crores ). This indicates a buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 23,922 Crores ( previous week Rs 21,030 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 24,423 Crores ( previous week Rs 24,827 Crores ).

The week that was

The week gone by has seen a bullish undertone as the benchmark indices continued their upmove for the third week in a row.  The traded volumes were marginally higher then the previous week and the sentiments were clearly bullish. The positive market breadth shows a level of confidence in the markets among the bulls that re-affirms our faith in the sustainability of the upmove. The FII inflows continued unabated and the year closed with a record high closing. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, HPCL, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Ranbaxy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Tata Power and Tisco. The Sensex was dragged down by Hind Lever, ICICI Bank, Maruti, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Telco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.42 levels ( 00.37 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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Likely triggers

  • The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are easing at US $ 43.45 / barrel ( previous week US $ 44.18 / barrel ).

  • The FII inflows are continuing to remain positive inspite of the holiday season and Rs 580 Crs inflows were reported in the first 4 days of the week.

  • The strong INR v/s the US $ is likely to keep the technology stocks suppressed. Being heavily weighted in the indices, tech stocks are likely to be a minor drag on the indices.

  • The F&O indicators point towards a marginal fall in the open interest after expiry. The bears show a tendency towards squaring up shorts at lower levels. That signals an optimistic approach.

  • The coming weeks will see two main triggers - earnings and FII allocation figures. Players need to watch the newsflow on these fronts.

  • The market breadth points towards a bullish undertone and the profit taking at higher levels is getting absorbed.

  • The overseas markets have shown a lack lustre mood as the holidays impacted the trading volumes.

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Technicals

This segment is for paid subscribers only.

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Your call of action
 

For stock specific recommendations please refer to our special edition " Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the "Flavours of the week".

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Have a profitable day.
 
Vijay L Bhambwani
Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.


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