The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Jan 15, 2005

Markets continue the horror show. Sensex tanks 245 points.

Lower volumes, negative breadth as bears run amok.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	6440	6469	6070	6173	246.64
BSE - 200	863	868	812	826	35.67
NSE - 50	2016	2025	1900	1931	84.40
Dow Jones	10558 46	Nasdaq	2088 1	FTSE	4821  33
Advances	6516	Declines	9373	Put / Call trades - 57212 : 139098
FII Investments	Rs  83 Crs Jan 1 - 13		Domestic Funds	Rs  526 Crs Jan 1 - 13

The value of shares advancing was Rs. 17,177 crores ( previous week Rs. 24,607 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 30,493 crores ( previous week Rs. 30,714 crores ). This indicates a selling bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 22,807 Crores ( previous week Rs. 26,886 Crores ). The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 25,306 Crores ( previous week Rs. 28,617 Crores ).

The week saw the bulls attempting to rally against the bears - rather unsuccessfully. The opening levels of the benchmark indices are almost the weekly highs and the indices failed to even rise higher than the previous day's intraday highs in all of 5 days. That shows a lack of conviction amongst the bulls, especially at higher levels. The market breadth was expectedly negative and the traded volumes were lower. That shows the indices getting into a negative spiral in the near term. The Sensex was boosted by HDFC and HDFC Bank. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Guj Amb Cem, Grasim, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, Reliance Industries, Satyam Computers, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.56 levels ( 00.19 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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• The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are rising on colder winter and lower reserve concerns. Nymex crude March futures closed the week at US $ 48.53 / barrel and the Feb futures closed at US $ 45.15 / barrel as against previous weekend levels of $ 45.43 ( March series ).

• The FII inflows are continuing to remain negative as sales of Rs. 305 Crs were logged between Mon - Thu.

• The F&O indicators point towards a fall in the open interest and marginal squaring up of short positions. The Nifty PCR stood at 0.87 : 1.

• The expiry of the January f&o series is closer than traders realise due to 2 holidays in the interim. The end of account market pressures will commence earlier than usual.

• The market breadth points towards a weak undertone as the advance decline ratio shows a degeneration in the sentiments. Of the entire traded volumes transacted last week, 38 % was initiated on positive market breadth days and the remaining on bearish days. That spells weakness in the sentiments.

• The overseas markets have been steady / weak as compared to the previous weekend. That is unlikely to cause any significant bullish effect on the domestic sentiments.

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Technicals

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Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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