The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

Ashok Leyland - this commercial vehicles manufacturer was recommended recently vide our newsletter dtd. June 04 and 11, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The stock has not performed as per our expectations, though the last few sessions have seen polarised buying on the counter. Technical traders will understand that sometimes premature breakouts occur on counters and a pullback to support levels is witnessed. After a due consolidation, the rally commences all over again. The positive aspect of the chart formation is that the volumes are up and the scrip has not retraced to test the trendline. A close above the 25 levels and a consistent trade above this mark will see accelerated upmoves which is likely to the take the stock to the 28 / 29 levels. The oscillators remain in the buy mode and we recommend a hold on existing positions and a fresh buy on a breakout.

Bajaj Auto - This scrip has been one of the most prolific recommendations and also one of the most profitable ones. Earlier reco's were dtd Jan 01, Mar 15 & 13, May 07, 15, 21 & 28, June 18 & 26, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. Surging into new highs, the scrip has out-performed the indices with a wide margin and the traded volumes have improved.

Bongaigaon Ref - this scrip was recommended as a short sale in our daily edition and has paid off as the 95 - 96 levels have proved to be a melting point for the counter. The upward sloping channel has been violated downwards and the oscillators are in a sell mode. We feel the oil refiners ( particularly the standalone scrips ) are in for a drubbing due to rising crude oil prices. Also note that the scrip is trading below it's 200 day SMA - a sign of weakness. We recommend a short sale at higher levels in a pullback.

Cipla - This scrip has been making higher tops as the graph indicates. An interesting observation can be made from the pattern - an inverted head and shoulder is in the making ( in the making because a h&s is not confirmed till the neckline is penetrated. The pattern is in the making since Jan ' 05 and will be confirmed once the 325 levels are surpassed on a conclusive closing basis with heavy volumes. Technical traders may note that a pullback to the neckline after a breakout is common so the rally may take time to gain momentum. Patient traders may try to exploit long opportunities on a confirmed breakout.

Dabur Ind - this scrip was recommended vide earlier newsletters dtd. May 28 and June 05 & 11, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. This scrip is in the second leg of it's upmove and we expect the first objective to be the 145 - 150 levels in the short / medium term. The last week has seen high volumes and the oscillators are supporting the upmove. A consistent trade above the 135 levels will see the upward momentum gaining acceleration. We recommend a hold on existing long positions and a buy on declines.

GSK Pharma - this scrip has been recommended earlier vide our edition dtd. Jan 16 &30 and June 26, 2005.Click here to view the previous recommendations. As we had accurately forecast, the breakout above the 800 levels has seen wonders accomplished on this counter in terms of week-on-week appreciation. We feel the re-rating of the pharmaceutical counters is in line with the nervousness associated with historical highs in the indices. Perceived as defensive plays, pharma scrips may remain in the limelight. We advocate holding long positions if any, and adding on declines.

HPCL - this petroleum refining and marketing PSU major has been recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Jan 16, Mar 13 & 26, April 03 & 10, and June 25, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip is making lower tops and bottoms formations and the traded volumes are shrinking. A fall below the 300 mark with an increase in volumes set the bearish cat amongst the bullish pigeons. The rising international crude prices are a negative for this counter. Also noteworthy is the fact that BPCL ( it's contemporary / competitor ) is better equipped to supply higher distillate value / higher octane fuels required by new age cars to the masses. The oscillators are pointing towards a sluggish outlook and a breakdown below the 300 spells trouble for this counter. We advocate a short sale outlook on the scrip below the 300 mark.

ITC - this scrip has been the most frequent and also the most profitable recommendation from us in recent times. Earlier recommendations were dtd Feb 06 & 27, Mar 05, 13 & 27, April 03, 10, 24 & 30, May 15, 22 & 29 and June 05, 11, 18 & 26, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. Technical traders will note the rising tops and bottoms formation and the scrip piercing all time highs. The oscillators are confirming the bullish outlook and traded volumes remain decent. We stick to our targets of 1665 ( achieved ) and 1789 ( or 120 - 121 ex split / bonus ) over the medium / long term. Maintain long positions on this counter with a patient view.

ONGC - recommended in our earlier edition dtd June 26, 2005, and some daily editions / sms, this scrip has performed up to our expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The higher tops and bottoms formation has taken the scrip past the 940 congestion levels on a continous closing basis. Directly linked to the international prices of crude oil prices, we feel a price over the 58.50 $ mark on Nymex crude and a sustained closing above the 1000 mark on this scrip would be a winning combination for bulls to go long again. The traded volumes have jumped in the recent past and that is a good sign. We recommend a buy for the discerning bulls.

SBI - this PSU banking major is in a major uptrend as the chart pattern indicates. Earlier recommendations dtd Jan 07, Mar 12, April 02, May 21 and June 05 & 11, 2005 have yielded a mixed bag of results. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The price graph is currently showing a higher tops and bottoms formation and the oscillators are confirming the uptrend. The moving averages are in an uptrend and a consistent trade above the 700 levels will see a new bull orbit in formation. We recommend a buy for the patient and disciplined investor / traders only.

Tata Tea - This scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd - Feb 05, May 07 & 28 and June 05, 2005. The scrip has rewarded bulls adequately and out-performed the markets. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip currently trades near lifetime highs and is making classic higher tops and bottoms formations. The oscillators are confirming the upmove and the traded volumes are rising albeit slowly. We recommend a buy on declines.

BSE Sensex - this BSE Benchmark is trading near it's lifetime highs and is moving along it's rising 13 day SMA. The immediate support will be at the 7085 levels in case of a decline. The upsides can see the 7365 levels in the coming week.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - the Nifty is moving within a bullish channel. Traders will note the "V" shaped formation that we have been advocating since a month. The immediate resistance will be seen at the 2238 - 2243 levels in the absolute short term. Short term support is expect to be seen at the 2183 / 2151 levels in the week ahead. Barring routine profit taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact.

Your call of action - Sell the July 2050 puts at a suggested premium of Rs. 8 and higher risk appetite players can sell the 2100 puts at a premium of Rs. 16 and above in small lots only. Traders in futures may please await sms alerts.

CNX IT - this IT index has been buoyant ever since it traded above the 3000 mark consistently. The last fortnight has seen higher volumes and the closing being higher than the 3000 mark on a week-on-week basis. A target of 3110 is likely if the uptrend continues.

Your call of action - Since the CNX IT futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - the NYSE benchmark has been subdued as the newsflow about the interest rates has dampened short term trading sentiments. The 10500 levels are likely to be a formidable hurdles for now and support is likely at the 10110 levels.

Your call of action - this is a pure academic study.

Ashok Leyland I Bajaj Auto I Bongaigaon Ref I Cipla I Dabur Ind I GSK Pharma I HPCL I ITC I ONGC I SBI I Tata Tea I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Nasdaq - this new economy benchmark is performing better than the Dow Jones in relative terms and is making a lower top formation. Unless the 2120 levels are surpassed consistently, the next phase of the rally is unlikely to commence. The 2000 psychological threshold is likely to be a critical trend determinator in the coming week.

Your call of action - this is a pure academic study.

FTSE - this UK index has out-performed the US indices and is likely to remain a relative out-performer. The 4960 levels will be the short term support and 5265 will be the upside target in the coming week.

Your call of action - this is a pure academic study.

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio has eased after expiry but still remains above the 6 month post expiry levels. The outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have shown a qualitative increase. The FII investments are continuing steadily.
The index heavy-weights are showing strength again. This in turn will boost the indices and cause a feel good factor. The only worry is that this upbeat sentiment should continue.
Trades must be executed in small volumes due to the higher volatility expected. Trade fewer counters and conserve cash for future opportunities.
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in any securities mentioned above.