The Professional Ticker Reader

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

BPCL - This scrip was recommended earlier vide our editions dtd Mar 12, April 02 & 09, June 18 & 25 and July 09 2005 and has performed along expected lines. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The recommendation remains unchanged as a short sale but on advances. The chart pattern is suggesting a head and shoulder pattern and the same is shown in graphic below with the neckline commencing from Aug 2004. Note how the previous week has confirmed this 11 month formation albeit on lower volumes. The supporting evidence is the rapidly sinking relative strength and the oscillators which are indicating weakness. The moving averages are trending lower and we recommend a fresh short sale but on marginal rallies.

Canara Bank - This scrip was recommended vide our earlier edition dtd July 09, 2005 and has risen as per our expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The chart pattern suggests a classic rising tops and bottoms formation. The price has closed near all time highs and the oscillators are supporting the upmove. The moving averages are pointing towards a rising trend and we feel a consistent close above the 245 levels with higher volumes will be a conclusive buy for the patient bulls. In case of a strong breakout above the 245 levels, we expect the 300 levels to be reached within 8 - 12 months. Buying is recommended.

Chambal Fert - This scrip was recommended vide our newsletter dtd June 11 2005 but did not perform as per expectations due to monsoon fears. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The chart pattern is suggestive of a rising tops and bottoms formation, the traded volumes are rising and the the averages are in an uptrend. The scrip is likely to face congestion / resistance at the 36 levels as it is the 10 year high. A closing above this mark with higher volumes will indicate a fresh buy trigger for the bulls. This trade is for patient traders only.

Cipla - we recommended this scrip vide our earlier editions dtd July 02 and July 09, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip has appreciated slightly and closed higher with steady volumes. An inverted head and shoulder pattern is seen on the chart and the oscillators are pointing towards a bullish outlook. We re-affirm our view that the upward target is at the 375 levels and recommend a buy.

Dabur - this scrip was recommended vide earlier newsletters dtd. May 28, June 05 & 11, July 02 and July 09, 2005 and has performed as per our expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The short term target of 150 - 155 has been achieved / surpassed and that too on higher volumes and confirmation from the oscillators. The rising trend is gathering momentum and we recommend a buy on all declines for the discerning investor.

GSK Pharma - this scrip has been recommended earlier vide our edition dtd. Jan 16 & 30, June 26, July 02 and 09, 2005 and has performed better than our expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. We feel a consistent close above the 800 levels has ushered in a new trading zone for the counter and increased volumes are pointing towards a strength in the undertone. The oscillators are pointing towards a bullish uptrend and we recommend a buy on all declines as the lifetime highs are likely to be tested in the medium term.

HPCL - this petroleum refining and marketing PSU major has been recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Jan 16, Mar 13 & 26, April 03 & 10, June 25, July 02 and 09, 2005 and has performed as per our expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The chart pattern is indicating a head and shoulders pattern and the break below the 300 levels has confirmed a fall below the neckline ( indicated as a magenta trend-line ). The traded volumes have seen a marginal increase and the oscillators are pointing towards a weak outlook. We recommend a short sell bias on advances.

Tata Chem - we initiate coverage on this counter with a bullish outlook as the scrip is rising in a classic rising tops and bottoms formation with higher volumes. The oscillators are supporting the upmove and the moving averages in a text book style bullish formation. The scrip currently trades a 9 year high on a closing basis on the quarterly charts. A consistent closing above the 175 levels will indicate a fresh upmove which can take the scrip to the 225 levels in the short / medium term. We recommend a buy in small lots for the patient traders.

TCS - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Jan 08 & 29, Feb 12, Mar 12 and 19. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip was hammered down before the results after the poor show by Infosys. We feel the numbers are likely to trigger a short covering and fresh buying initiative and recommend a trading buy for the short term. Momentum traders may note the stochastics oscillator which points towards a short term rally.

TVS Motors - this scrip was recommended vide our edition dtd July 02 2005 and has performed as per our expectations. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip has shown signs of bottoming out of a sideways pattern and that too on higher traded volumes. The oscillators are signalling a buy and a close above the 81 levels has been a conclusive buy confirmation for the bulls. We recommend a buy for the short / medium term traders.

BSE Sensex - this index has shown signs of correcting lower after a good run upwards. The oscillators are pointing towards a continued weakness in the short term. This outlook will change after the 7350 levels are surpassed with higher volumes and an increase in the open interest on the long positions. We forecast support at the 7074 in the coming week.

Your call of action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Nifty 50 - this index has shown a break below the rising channel and the oscillators are pointing towards a weakness in the near term. The 2161 levels are likely to the critical support in the coming week and the 2239 levels will be the litmus test for the bulls. Only a conclusive close above the 2240 levels with higher volumes and increased open interest will confirm a fresh upmove. Till then hold long positions with stop losses.

Your call of action - Hold long positions with stop losses at the 2192 levels in spot. Options players can write the July 2290 strike at a suggested premium of Rs 7 or above.

CNX IT - this IT index has seen the most of the weakness after Infosys let loose the cat amongst the pigeons. We feel the 2820 levels are a critical support in the coming week and upsides may see the 2984 levels being tested in the post TCS scenario. The relative strength comparison shows a higher performance than the Nifty 50.

Your call of action - Since the CNX IT futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - this US old economy benchmark has shown a bullish pattern after the 10600 levels were surpassed amidst positive economic data. The 10480 levels are likely to be the short term support and the index may see 10785 levels in this week.

Your call of action - this is a pure academic study.

BPCL I Canara Bank I Chambal Fert I Cipla I Dabur I GSK Pharma I HPCL I Tata Chem I TCS I TVS Motors I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Nasdaq - this index is showing a strong chart pattern as the previous week's forecast has been on target. A firm closing above the 2125 levels has been a confirmatory signal for the bulls and the 2222 levels maybe seen soon. Downsides are likely to see support coming in at the 2120 level.

Your call of action - this is a pure academic study.

BPCL I Canara Bank I Chambal Fert I Cipla I Dabur I GSK Pharma I HPCL I Tata Chem I TCS I TVS Motors I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

FTSE - this UK benchmark is showing a highest closing after March 2002 on the quarterly charts and that is a bullish indicator. Support at lower levels will be seen at the 5160 levels and upsides may see 5370 in the coming week.

Your call of action - this is a pure academic study.

BPCL I Canara Bank I Chambal Fert I Cipla I Dabur I GSK Pharma I HPCL I Tata Chem I TCS I TVS Motors I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Trading tips for the week

The put / call ratio is climbing and is currently at the 0.32 : 1 levels and the outstanding positions in the derivatives segment have shown a qualitative deterioration as the puts are rising on the Nifty. The FII investments are continuing steadily.
The index heavy-weights are showing strength again. This in turn will boost the indices and cause a feel good factor. The only worry is that this upbeat sentiment should continue.
The impeding expiry of the July series will see offloading and higher volatility in the near term.
Trades must be executed in small volumes due to the higher volatility expected. Trade fewer counters and conserve cash for future opportunities.
Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS on a real - time basis.

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in any securities mentioned above.