The Professional Ticker Reader ®

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June 04, 2005

Markets at 3 month highs. Sensex gains 41 points

Lower volumes, positive breadth as stocks get institutional boost

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	6697	6763	6642	6748	41.13
BSE - 200	884	894	879	892	08.51
NSE - 50	2076	2097	2061	2094	17.85
Midcap 200	2999	3024	2965	3006	14.70
CNX-IT	2883	2938	2852	2920	23.60
NCDEX Agri	1224	1234	1222	1234	11.03
Dow Jones	10461 81	Nasdaq	2071 4	FTSE	4999 13
Advances	8789	Declines	7532	Put / Call trades - 75343 : 133677
FII Investments	Rs  331 Crs June 1 - 2		Domestic Funds	Rs  91 Crs June 1 - 2

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 21,475 crores ( previous week Rs 35,636 crs ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 12,526 crores ( previous week Rs 15,275 crs ). This indicates a buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 10,521 Crores ( previous week Rs 15,991 crs ). The total traded weekly volume on the NSE was Rs. 23,623 Crores ( previous week Rs 35,769 crs ).

The week saw the markets trend higher and extend the previous weeks gains albeit on lower volumes. The market sentiments remained cheerful and is borne out by the positive market breadth data as indicated above. The gains were mainly from the institutional purchases on frontline counters and also from short covering from nervous bears. The market players shrugged off worries of a deficient monsoon on clarifications by the authorities and the rally continued as usual. The Sensex was boosted by Bajaj Auto, Cipla, Dr Reddy, HDFC Bank, Hind Lever, ITC, Infosys, L&T, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, Hero Honda, Hindalco, HPCL, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Ranbaxy, SBI, Tisco, Telco, Tata Power and Wipro. The Rupee ended the week at 43.61 levels ( 00.08 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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• The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are higher at US $ 55.03 / barrel ( previous week US $ 51.85 / barrel ). This may raise inflationary fears. This is in line with our forecast of crude hitting near US $ 56 / barrel. Click here to view the report.

• The FII inflows are positive on all four days of the recorded week ( Mon - Thurs ) and totalled Rs 814.50 Crs. This is a major positive for market watchers.

• The F&O indicators point towards a smart rise of 16 % in open interest with sharp rise in the Nifty PCR to 1.28 : 1 from the previous week's figure of 1.12 :1. This indicates a hedging of positions in individual stocks against Nifty shorts.

• Inflation figure of 5.38 % is lower than the previous weeks figure of 5.55 %. This maybe a minor solace to the bulls.

• The market breadth points towards an optimistic undertone as the advance decline figures indicate in the table above. Of the entire traded volumes of the week, 59 % was initiated on uptick days. That signifies a bullish bias for now.

• The media reports of a possible cabinet reshuffle may impact sentiments adversely to a minor degree.

• The overseas markets have been lack lustre and are unlikely to provide any major triggers in the immediate future.

• For a complete perspective on the markets, please refer to our crude & currency, commodities, f&o, midcap, flavours of the week and swing reversal newsletters.

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Technicals

This segment is for paid subscribers only

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For stock specific recommendations please refer to our special edition " Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the "Flavours of the week".

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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