The markets have crashed on a week-on-week basis with a slide in volumes as the bulls abstained from big ticket trades. The outstanding net long positions are up approx 4.75 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a positive development as the bulls show a higher risk appetite. The outlook appears to be cautiously optimistic as the markets are trading above the short term support at the 2080 levels which points towards a possibility of 2140 - 2150 levels if more buying occurs. The Nifty March futures trade at Rs 4.50 premium to cash - as against at Rs 6 discount to cash last weekend. The stocks of the week are likely to remain Reliance Inds, SBI & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	3,593 39
Stock futures	10,478 404
Index options		1262 89	1850 144	(-) 588  55
Stock options		2197 360	761 70	1436  290
Total Futures	14,071 443	Total options - net	848 235
Gross longs ( F+O )	17,530 892	Net longs ( F+O )	14,919 678

Observation - The net out-standings have risen as the above table indicates. This is a positive development as the bulls show a higher risk appetite. Click here to view previous weeks file

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 16,638 crs, net long positions Rs 14,241 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 11,159 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have sold more futures than they bought on Mar 17, 2005. That indicates a selling bias in the near term. Purchases of Rs. 64 Crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The traded volumes have slumped. The traded turnover was lower in almost all the segments. That is a slightly positive development as the fall was on lower volumes. We want the volumes and prices to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautious in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	16,016	17,004	988
Stock futures	43,330	35,685	7,645
Totals - a	59,346	52,689	6,657
Index calls	1,558	1,772	214
Stock calls	3,869	3,160	709
Totals - b	5,427	4,932	495
Index puts	1,740	1,717	23
Stock puts	1,029	932	97
Totals - c	2,769	2,649	120
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	67,542	60,270	7,272

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	1.50 : 1	Previous week	1.49: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.32 : 1	Previous week	0.36 : 1
PCR - Total	0.39 : 1	Previous week	0.43 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bulls as the ratios are showing a decrease in shorts on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have seen a slight increase. The individual stocks show a sizeable decrease in short positions. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained below the equilibrium point. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2100  CE	318	373	55
2150  CE	343	329	14
2050  CE	133	137	04
2180  CE	75	63	12
2120  CE	41	56	15
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
2100  PE	566	670	104
2050  PE	353	402	49
2000  PE	241	230	11
2150  PE	184	144	40
1950  PE	86	84	02

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 48 Crs - showing a preference for the 2100 - 2120 strikes. Our inference is - watch the 2080 support levels in the coming days. The bears have added Rs. 100 Crs. That shows a tendency towards selling at the 2050 - 2100 strikes. The undertone appears cautiously optimistic for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Reliance	807	906	99
Tisco	1123	1202	79
NTPC	470	452	18
Infosys	478	437	41
SBI	684	647	37

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
NTPC 95  Calls	95	97	02
NTPC 100  calls	66	66	00
RELIANCE 600 calls	64	66	02
NTPC 90  calls	48	58	10
TISCO 440 calls	45	56	11

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance & NTPC. Outstanding open interest in most of the stocks has risen - a positive phenomena. Infosys is the new kid on the block. Watch Reliance & Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 2050 - 2150 on the long side and Andhra Bank, NTPC, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

---

Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  & the Derivatives Denizen are trademarks  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any unauthorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

---

While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.