The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Flavours of the week                                                            Mar 13, 2005

These are stocks that we expect to out-perform the markets. Cash and derivative strategies are advised thereon. Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. Please also read the trading tips section at the end of the newsletter.

Individual stocks

Bajaj Auto - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Dec 05 2004, Jan 12, 19 & 26 and March 05 2005. The stock has been a market performer and has paid off patient investor / traders. Click here to view the previous recommendations. As we had advocated last week, the scrip is likely to remain positive as long as the spot price maintains levels above 1110. The closing has been above this threshold and the future prospects appear positive. Technical buffs may note how the scrip moves along a 24 month long bullish trendline which been a good support base for the scrip. We recommend a buy for the patient investor.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy on all declines in small lots till the 1070 / 1080 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 1045 mark. Expect to book profits at the 1200 + levels in a conducive market in a few months or less.

• Aggressive F&O traders - buy the April future as long as the value is above 1110 and maintain a stop loss at the 1085 levels. Expect profit taking at the 1150 - 1160 in the near / medium term in a conducive market. Options players do not have much of a choice due to poor liquidity on the counter.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 400 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 70,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Bharat Elect - This scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 07, 14 & 27, Dec 19 2004, Feb 20 & 27 and March 06 2005. The scrip has appreciated handsomely and rewarded bulls significantly. Click here to view the previous recommendations. Technical traders will note the text book style retracement and an ensuing rally that has been a confirmation of a classic bullish pattern forming on the charts. We feel a 10 - 15 % is likely in the short / medium term and the scrip merits a buy recommendation. Note the high relative strength of 192 ( where 100 = base ).

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy on all declines to the 700 levels and keep a stop loss at the 675 levels. Expect to book profit at the 800 - 825 levels in a conducive market in the medium term.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the April futures at the 725 - 730 levels and hold with a liberal stop loss at the 685 levels. Expect to book profits at the 775 - 800 in the medium term in a conducive market. Options players do not have much of a choice due to poor liquidity on the counter.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 550 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 68,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

BHEL - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Dec 12 & 19 2004, Jan 09 & 30, Feb 06, 20 & 27 and March 05 2005. This prolific feature of this edition has also been one of the more profitable ones. Click here to view the previous recommendations. Our subscribers will note the chart pattern explained in the previous edition which points towards a target projected at the 900 - 920 levels in a conducive market. The recent news about the possible cancellation of orders has seen a slide on the scrip, which could see the fall being arrested near the 780 - 790 levels where a buy is recommended for the patient / disciplined investor. Technical traders may note the high relative strength of 421 ( where 100 = base ).

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy the scrip on declines to the 790 - 800 levels and keep a stop loss at the 775 levels. Expect to book profits at the 900 + levels in a few months time frame in a conducive market.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the April futures ( quoting at Rs 9 premium to cash ) at the 810 - 815 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 775 levels. Expect to book profits at the 845 - 850 in a conducive market in the near term in a conducive market scenario. Options players may buy the March 860 calls at a suggested premium of Rs 3 - 4.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 600 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 84,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

BPCL - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Dec 26, 2004 and Jan 02 & 16 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. This scrip is sensitive to international crude prices and fluctuations thereof. Any rally in crude prices will see a sentimental weakness on this counter. The scrip is exhibiting a lower tops and bottoms formation and is exhibiting a weak chart formation. We recommend a short sell view on this counter for the higher risk players.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - n/a.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Short sell the March futures at the 406 - 408 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 411 levels. Expect to book profits at the 385 - 390 levels in case the crude prices remain firm and market sentiments remain subdued. Options players can buy the March 420 puts at a suggested premium of Rs 18 - 20.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 550 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 38,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

HDFC - This scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 19 2004, Feb 06 & 13 and March 05 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. March being a typical institutional activity month, this scrip stands a chance of higher volume trading pattern. Note the higher relative strength at 256 and the oscillators showing a strong movement on the medium term charts. The scrip is making a rising tops and bottoms formation and is near it's life-time highs. A sustained close above the 800 levels will see it make a new high on a closing basis on the quarterly charts. We recommend a buy for the patient and disciplined investors.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy the scrip at the current prices and hold with a stop loss at the 765 levels. Expect to book profits at the 850 - 875 levels in a conducive market in the medium term. Long term players may expect even higher levels.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the April futures at the 800 - 805 levels and hold with a liberal stop loss at the 770 levels. Expect profit taking at the 840 - 845 in the short / medium term time frame. Options players do not have much of a choice due to poor liquidity on the counter.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 600 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 78,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Hind Petrol - This scrip was recommended on Jan 02 & 16 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations.  This scrip is sensitive to international crude prices and fluctuations thereof. Any rally in crude prices will see a sentimental weakness on this counter. The scrip is exhibiting a lower tops and bottoms formation and is exhibiting a weak chart formation. The stock is at it's 200 day SMA which is a critical threshold level for any scrip. A sustained trading below this level will see accelerated weakness on this counter. We recommend a short sell view on this counter for the higher risk players.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - n/a

• Aggressive F&O traders - Short the March futures once the value is consistently below the 336 levels. Maintain a stop loss at the 345 - 347 levels and expect to book profits at the 330 - 325 levels in case the crude prices remain firm and the market sentiments remain weak. Income conscious players may sell the March 360 calls at a suggested premium of Rs 4.50 for good returns with a stop loss at the Rs 7 mark.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 650 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 38,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Petronet LNG - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier edition dtd Feb 20 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The stock has started showing signs of moving and a sustained trade above the 45 levels will see a bullishness returning to the counter after a sustained correction which saw a compressed range bound trading between the 41 - 47 levels. We feel this scrip is a potential multi bagger and a must for the long term investor with a time frame of atleast 1 year.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy the stock at current levels and keep room for averaging up to the 40 mark. Maintain a stop loss at the 37 levels and expect to book profits at the 70 + levels in the long term.

• Aggressive F&O traders - F&o n/a.

• Derivatives contract size - F&o n/a.

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Reliance Inds - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 21 & 27, Dec 05 2004, Jan 09, Feb 13 and March 05 2005. This scrip was the star of the previous week amongst our recos. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The inverted head and shoulder pattern has been confirmed and has richly rewarded the players as the scrip has achieved it's projected target to the last Rupee ! We feel the ensuing correction may see the scrip dipping to the 575 - 578 levels and stabilising there after which, a fresh upmove maybe seen. We recommend a fresh buy at those levels for the short term traders.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy at the 575 - 578 levels with a stop loss at the 565 levels. Expect to book profits at the 600 + levels in a short span in a conducive market.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the March futures on minor declines to the 578 / 580 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 568 / 570 mark. Expect to book profits at the 600 + levels in a conducive market scenario.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 600 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 60,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

SBI - this scrip was recommended on Jan 09 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. This banking major is in a long term uptrend and has closed at it's highest levels after April 1992 ( 13 year highs ) and is exhibiting a strong chart formation. Technical traders will note the higher relative strength of 152 and the rising tops and bottoms formation. The rally is supported by the oscillators and the 720 levels ( spot ) are a short term floor above which the scrip is likely to remain bullish. We recommend a buy for the medium / long term player.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy the scrip on all declines till the 700 mark and hold with a stop loss at the 660 levels. Expect profit taking at the 840 levels in the medium term in a conducive market scenario.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the April futures at the 735 - 738 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 710 - 712 levels. Expect profit taking at the 765 - 770 levels in a conducive market in the short / medium term. Options players may buy the March 760 calls at a suggested premium of Rs 8. 

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 500 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 63,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

TCS - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 14 & 27, Dec 05 & 12 2004, Jan 02, 09 & 30 and Feb 13 2005 and has been extremely profitable for the patient bulls. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The scrip has been included in the Nifty composite and has a higher relative strength at 105 ( where 100 = base ). The oscillators are supporting the upmove and the chart pattern is suggestive of a level of 1465 in the short term. Over the longer term, expect the rally to be accelerated once the 1480 levels are surpassed on a closing basis. We recommend a buy on the counter for a short / medium term trader / investor.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy the scrip at the 1405 - 1415 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 1375 levels. Expect to book profits at the 1460 - 1470 in the short term and 1540 in the medium term in a conducive market scenario.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the April futures at the 1420 - 1425 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 1390 levels. Expect to book profits at the 1465 - 1475 in the near term in a conducive market scenario.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 250 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 56,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Telco - This scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 14, 2004 and Jan 16, 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The stock is showing signs of weakness as the 7 month old trendline has been violated on a closing basis and the oscillators are confirming a weakness on the charts. The scrip has been making lower tops and bottoms formation and that has been an advance indicator of a breakdown in price. There is a minor support at 455 levels below which the scrip can see accelerated selling all the way to the 430 mark. We recommend a short sell on the counter.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - n/a.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Short the March futures as long as the scrip remains below 465 and hold with a stop loss at the 477 levels. Expect to book profits at the 440 - 445 levels in a conducive market scenario. Income conscious players can sell the March 510 calls at a suggested premium of Rs 2.50 while options players can buy the March 460 puts at a suggested price of Rs 6.50 - 7.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 825 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 65,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Tisco - this scrip was recommended vide our earlier editions dtd Nov 07& 14, Dec 05 & 19 2004, Jan 16, 22 & 30, Feb 20 & 27 and March 05 2005. Click here to view the previous recommendations. The chart pattern is suggestive of bullishness and we had advocated a price target of 460 - 465 in the near term and 500 + in the medium term, which we re-affirm. The oscillators are supporting the upmove and the relative strength is high at 121 ( where 100 = base ). Buying is recommended for the patient investor / trader.

Your call of action -

• Investors / cash segment players - buy the scrip at all declines to the 425 levels and hold with a stop loss at the 390 mark. Expect to book profits at the 500 + levels in a conducive market in the medium term.

• Aggressive F&O traders - Buy the April futures ( quoting at Rs 6 premium to cash ) at the 440 levels and hold the existing long positions initiated last week. Stop losses can be maintained at the 424 levels and a target of 460 - 465 levels can be achieved in the near term, whereas 500 + is expected in the medium / long term. Options players may buy the March 450 calls at a suggested premium of Rs 6.

• Derivatives contract size - Market lot = 1,350 shares. F&O margin = approx Rs 99,000 (subject to change daily )

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Indices - domestic

BSE Sensex - the Sensex is showing signs of resistance at the 6950 levels which is must surpass to signal a fresh upmove which is likely to take it past the 700 levels. The oscillators are showing a profit taking bias at higher levels and the momentum is flagging on the short term charts. Bulls must await a breakout above the 6950 before taking a clear buy call on the Sensex. On the lower levels, expect support at the 6745 levels in the coming week.

Your  call  of  action - Since the Sensex futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading  the Nifty 50  instead.

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Nifty 50 - Like the Sensex, the Nifty gets resistance at the 2184 levels which are a threshold / crossover indicator. Only if these levels are surpassed, will the Nifty manage to commence a fresh upmove which is likely to take it past the 2240 levels. Support on the downside is expected to be witnessed at the 2120 - 2130 in the coming week.

Your  call of  action - Keep initiating short sales above the 2169 levels ( spot ) with a stop loss at the 2182 and a target of 2132 - 2314. Await signs of bottoming out and reco on buying via sms / daily newsletter.

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

CNX IT - this IT index is a gross market under-performer as the 3000 levels are acting as a barrier which this index must surpass to start a fresh upmove. Below 2905, this index can fall rapidly and test the 2876 levels over the short / medium term.

Your  call  of  action - Since this index futures are not very liquid, we suggest trading the Nifty 50 instead.

Bajaj Auto I BEL I BHEL I BPCL I HDFC I HPCL I Petronet LNG I Reliance Inds I SBI I TCS I Telco I Tisco I BSE Sensex I Nifty I CNX-IT I Dow Jones I Nasdaq I FTSE I Top I Close window I Print page

Have a  profitable week.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The  author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and  invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI  disclosure :-  The  author has no positions in any securities mentioned  above.

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