The Professional Ticker Reader TM

Your accurate, authentic and affordable guide to investing

March 19, 2005

Markets feel year end jitters. Sensex tanks 153 points

Lower volumes, negative breadth as bulls take a breather

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	6854	6882	6595	6700	153.39
BSE - 200	922	926	887	900	21.84
NSE - 50	2153	2164	2077	2109	44.85
Dow Jones	10630 144	Nasdaq	2008  34	FTSE	4923 59
Advances	6044	Declines	10116	Put / Call trades - 609015 : 118438
FII Investments	Rs  8070 Crs Mar 1 - 17		Domestic Funds	Rs  604 Crs Mar 1 - 17

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 15,904 crores ( previous week Rs 23,859 crs ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 21,587 crores ( previous week Rs 18,070 crs ). This indicates a marginal selling bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 15,259 Crores ( previous week Rs 14,371 crs ). The total traded weekly volume on the NSE was Rs. 23,718 Crores ( previous week Rs 28,027 crs ).

The markets saw a bearish trend as the indices shed value on bull unloading. As advocated by us in the beginning of the month, the year end considerations, advance tax & service tax factors took their toll on the markets. The market breadth was expectedly negative and the traded volumes were lower than last week. The undertone was cautious but optimistic of a turnaround. The week saw mega block deals and paper changing hands as stronger players dug their heels in the markets. The Sensex was boosted by ICICI Bank. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.65 levels ( 00.08 ) against the US $.  Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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• The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are higher at US $ 56.72 / barrel ( previous week US $ 54.43 / barrel ). This is likely to exert an inflationary pressure on the economy. The inflation figures released on Friday already bear this out as the reading is 5.30 % against 4.95 % last week.

• The demand from the oil companies to raise fuel prices is likely to be a negative trigger for the markets also. Though the decision is unlikely to come before April, the markets will try to discount the fact before hand.

• The FII inflows are continuing to remain positive as the inflows this week ( Mon - Thu ) totalled Rs 2717 crs. Though sporadic selling was seen this week, we expect the markets not to get unduly worried on this front. These figures warrant a closer monitoring though.

• The reduction in the contract size in the F&O segment from April 01, 2005 is likely to cheer market sentiments significantly.

• The F&O indicators point towards a higher open interest and a slight easing of bearish trades at lower levels. Bear covering on declines will cushion further falls if any.

• The market breadth points towards a bearish undertone as the advance decline ratio indicates in the table above. Of the entire traded volumes in the week, only 18 % was initiated on uptick days. That indicates a selling bias at higher levels.

• The overseas markets have been weak on higher crude prices. That will cap the gains in the domestic markets in the coming week.

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Technicals

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For stock specific recommendations please refer to our special edition " Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the "Flavours of the week".

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  is a  trademark  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any un-authorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

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While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.

The Professional Ticker Reader TM

Your accurate, authentic and affordable guide to investing

March 12, 2005

Markets hit speed breaker. Sensex gains 4 points

Higher volumes, negative breadth as profit sales cap gains

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	6863	6954	6838	6853	04.25
BSE - 200	921	934	915	922	03.66
NSE - 50	2148	2183	2141	2154	05.85
Dow Jones	10774 166	Nasdaq	2042  29	FTSE	4982 54
Advances	7582	Declines	8557	Put / Call trades - 63471 : 130684
FII Investments	Rs  5222 Crs Mar 1 - 10		Domestic Funds	Rs  416 Crs Mar 1 - 10

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 23,859 crores ( previous week Rs 30,558 crs ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 18,070 crores ( previous week Rs 12,029 crs ). This indicates a marginal selling bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 14,371 Crores ( previous week Rs 13,922 crs ). The total traded weekly volume on the NSE was Rs. 28,027 Crores ( previous week Rs 28,901 crs ).

The week saw a profit taking bias in the markets as the bulls preferred to lock in gains. The fact that the markets were in virgin territory increased the sense of nervousness in the undertone. The traded volumes were marginally lower and the market breadth was expectedly negative. The Sensex was boosted by Bajaj Auto, Cipla, Dr Reddy, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, Hindalco, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI and Tisco. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bharti Tele, BHEL, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, Hind Lever, HPCL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Maruti, Telco, Tata Power, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 43.57 levels ( 00.16 ) against the US $.  Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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• The markets are likely to take note of crude prices which are higher this weekend at US $ 54.43 / barrel ( previous week US $ 53.78 / barrel ) which is likely to fuel inflationary concerns.

• The FII inflows are continuing unabated with Rs 3,063 Crs being pumped in this week. That is a positive trigger for the bulls.

• The F&O indicators point towards a build up of long positions in stocks but the Nifty PCR has scaled new highs, showing a short selling bias.

• The latest inflation figures show a minor rise which is a minor cause for concern. As pointed out last week, the advance tax and service tax payment will be minor triggers for profit sales.

• The market breadth points towards a weakness in the sentiments, especially at higher levels. Of the entire weekly traded volumes, 61 % were transacted on bullish market days.

• The overseas markets were subdued as the higher crude prices fuelled worries of slower economic recovery.

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Technicals

This segment is for paid subscribers only

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I Print this page I Close window

For stock specific recommendations please refer to our special edition " Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the "Flavours of the week".

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

---

Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  is a  trademark  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any un-authorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

---

While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.