The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Nov 20, 2004

Markets spooked by Reliance. Sensex sheds 2 points.

Higher volumes, positive breadth as late selloff derails rally.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5970	6044	5949	5961	02.30
BSE - 200	782	796	778	784	02.34
NSE - 50	1872	1898	1862	1872	00.60
Dow Jones	10457  82	Nasdaq	2071  15	FTSE	4761  33
Advances	6789	Declines	5684	Put / Call trades - 41609 : 108535
FII Investments	Rs  2822 Crs Nov 1 - 18		Domestic Funds	Rs  220 Crs Nov 1 - 18

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 13,514 crores ( previous week Rs. 15,642 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 18,048 crores ( previous week Rs. 15,918 crores ). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs.22,713  Crores ( previous week Rs. 16,007 Crores ). The total traded weekly volume on the NSE was Rs. 16,603 Crores ( previous week Rs. 15,752 Crores ).

The markets saw a bullish undertone as the truncated week was marked by the bulls grabbing the initiative from the bears. The Reliance imbroglio took the sheen off the week as the indices lost on the penultimate session of the week. The traded volumes were higher as the BSE saw hectic bulk deals on select counters. The market breadth was positive in absolute numbers but negative in the capitalisation terms, which shows a selling bias on select heavy-weights. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Dr Reddy, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Satyam Computers, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was dragged down by Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Grasim, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, ITC, L&T, Maruti, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy and Reliance Industries. The Rupee ended the week at 45.10 levels ( 00.06 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was completely in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

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• The markets are likely to be influenced by the crude oil prices which are now at US $ 48.44 / barrel in the Dec series as worries on higher winter demand coupled with lower supplies unnerved traders.

• The weekly market breadth has been positive as the figures stand at 6789 : 5684, which shows a positive undertone, barring the nervousness on the Reliance issue.

• The F&O figures point towards a marginal rise in open interest in the futures segment, albeit with a higher short position on the Nifty. The Nifty PCR ( put call ratio has scaled to the 1.21 : 1 levels and the overall PCR stands at 0.42 : 1 )

• The FII inflows continue to remain positive and a robust Rs 843 crs were pumped into Indian equities in the three sessions of this week.

• Reliance Industries is likely to be a concern as the weightage of the scrip on Friday stands at 11.74 % & 9.18 % on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.

• The rapid fall in the US $ is likely to remain a concern on the technology sector as their forex earnings are likely to be impacted in the short term. Being heavily weighted on the indices, the technology sector coupled with Reliance may drag markets lower.

• The overseas markets have been weak as profit taking at higher levels has eroded sentiments. That will have a trickle down effect on the domestic markets too.

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Technicals

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Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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