The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Oct 16, 2004

Markets snap winning streak. Sensex slips 71 points.

Poor volumes, negative breadth selling mars the week.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5764	5792	5645	5686	71.20
BSE - 200	762	767	741	749	12.27
NSE - 50	1817	1829	1773	1795	22.80
Dow Jones	9933 122	Nasdaq	1911 8	FTSE	4623 76
Advances	4194	Declines	7501	Put / Call trades - 36236 : 97785
FII Investments	Rs  1642 Crs Oct 1 - 14		Domestic Funds	Rs  525 Crs Oct 1 - 14

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 8,714 crores ( previous week Rs. 20,893 crores ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 12,443 crores ( previous week Rs. 10,698 crores ). This indicates a broader selling bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 6,462 Crores ( previous week Rs. 10,219 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 14,777 Crores ( previous week Rs. 21,630 Crores ). It must be remembered that a fair comparison of the figures is not justified as the week was a short one, due to the holiday on account of elections.

The week saw a weak trend as the bulls paused for breath and preferred to wait and watch. The bears built short positions and the same is evident from the PCR which shows increasing bearish activity. The results season began in earnest with Infosys and TCS opening the innings on a strong wicket. The traded volumes were lower ( though it should be remembered that this week was truncated by a day ) as the falls were accompanied by lower volumes. The market breadth remained negative and the buying was polarised on the technology counters. The Sensex was boosted by HPCL, Infosys, ITC, ONGC, Satyam Computers, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr. Reddy, Grasim, Guj Ambuja Cements, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, L&T, MTNL, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, SBI, Telco, Tata Power and Tisco. The Rupee ended the week at 45.85 levels ( 00.10 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous week's files.

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• The markets will continue to be governed / worried by the high oil prices in the coming week. The resultant inflationary effect is likely to affect the global financial markets.

• The FII inflows remain positive with the weekly figures totalling to Rs 299 crs ( previous week Rs 871 Crs ), though the inflows are slowing to a trickle.

• The F&O indicators point towards higher short sales as bears show aggression at higher levels. The Nifty PCR remains above the 1.10 : 1.

• Of the entire traded volumes in the past week, 100 % of the volumes were transacted on negative market breadth days, which shows a negative trend in the undertone.

• The overseas markets have remained subdued with the oil worries and approaching winter hinting of further rallies in crude prices.

• The political compulsions towards not raising petroleum prices in the domestic markets is likely to see oil companies taking a hit as also higher fiscal deficit. This remains a continued worry as pointed out last week. Click here to view the previous week's files. 

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Technicals

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Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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