The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Oct 24, 2004

Bulls weak in the knees. Sensex slips 46 points.

Poor volumes, negative breadth as bears gaining initiative.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5706	5751	5617	5641	45.67
BSE - 200	752	758	741	744	05.45
NSE - 50	1796	1815	1772	1779	15.25
Dow Jones	9758 176	Nasdaq	1915  4	FTSE	4615 7
Advances	5145	Declines	6359	Put / Call trades - 35621 : 86443
FII Investments	Rs  1862 Crs Oct 1 - 20		Domestic Funds	Rs  637 Crs Oct 1 - 20

The value of shares advancing was Rs. 8,593 crores ( previous week Rs. 8,714 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 10,731 crores ( previous week Rs. 12,443 crores ). This indicates a broader selling bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 5,982 Crores ( previous week Rs. 6,462 Crores ). The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 13,496 Crores ( previous week Rs. 14,777 Crores ).

The markets saw a lower participation as the week was a truncated one on account of a holiday on Friday. The undertone was distinctly nervous as the bulls lacked the buying conviction at lower levels. The traded volumes were expectedly lower as the retail participation was lacking. The market breadth was negative yet again, though the ratio was somewhat even this week. The Sensex was boosted by BHEL, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC Ltd, Hero Honda, ICICI Bank, Telco and Tata Power. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, HDFC Bank, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, L&T, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 45.73 levels ( 00.12 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous week's files.

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• The markets are likely to be influenced by the earnings season in the coming weeks as these are the immediate triggers.

• The FII inflows continue to be positive with Rs. 181 investments in the first 3 sessions of records available. The inflows however are trickling slower.

• Crude prices continue to be a nagging concern as the winter in the western countries sets in, more heating oil is required. We have been constantly reminding our investors about the impeding oil shock for months. Supply disruptions, terror attacks and political premiums are causing further upward spiral as the NYMEX reported a price of $ 55.17 / barrel after an intraday high of $ 55.50 / barrel. Click here to view the previous week's files. We expect the crude prices to top 60 $ mark in a few months.

• The F&O figures point towards a buildup of shorts as the bears press sales relentlessly. The Nifty PCR exceeds 1.20 : 1 and the traded turnover in F&O was lower by Rs 3,000 crs. That is a sign of caution for bulls.

• The number crunching of market internals of last week show a weak undertone as only 25 % of the entire traded volumes were on positive market breadth days. That shows a selling bias at higher levels.

• The overseas markets are distinctly weak as the Dow Jones average is at it's 2004 yearly lows and continues to fall. This is in line with our global market report of the previous week Click here to view the previous weeks global report.

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Technicals

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Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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