The Professional Ticker Reader ®Visit our website
                                                    Your accurate, authentic and affordable guide to investing

Apr 10, 2005

Crude easing, US $ lazing

The week saw a pleasant surprise on the two main areas of concern  - the US greenback and black gold ( crude oil ). While Nymex crude futures saw a major fall on a w-o-w basis to close at US $ 53.35 / barrel, ( previous week US $ 57.27 / barrel ) The primary reason for the fall in crude oil prices was the consolatory statement by Alan Greenspan that consumption was easing in the USA as crude prices flared higher. The fact that the reserve inventory figures were also encouraging helped matters. The OPEC made noises about raising production towards the end of week, causing overall relief. The PM's assurance to the international media that a 6.5 - 7 % GDP growth would still be realistic ( against an earlier expectation of 8 % ) saw the INR holding it's ground against the US $. The Rupee ended the week at 43.76 ( previous week 43.74 )

 Crude oil

As can be noticed from the chart ( data upto April 07 2005 only ), the prices are easing. Lower tops and bottoms are being made if April 08 is also taken into account. The momentum oscillators seem to indicate easier crude prices in the coming week as the indications are downwards. Note how the stochastics oscillator is in a sell mode and the MACD is indicating a downward pressure. The immediate support is likely at the US $ 51.30 - 51.50 range and below that, 49.50 - 50.15 $ could be a possibility also.

Nymex crude - Daily chart

Overall outlook this week for crude is downward and we feel the prices may remain subdued.

US $ v/s INR

The US $ has been steady between the 43.45 - 43.85 range since a fortnight or more. We feel the 43.20 levels are a critical area to watch as this was a major breakout area in 1998 and has not been tested since then. It has taken almost 7 years to get there and any fall below this 43.20 threshold will see a sharp decline in the US $. The upsides are likely to be capped at the 44.70 - 44.80 in the next few months and a fall below 43.20 will see 42.35 then 40.50 levels. The latter level is more likely in view of the flimsy support seen on the US greenback. This outlook is for the medium / long term players, spanning 3 - 5 months.

US Dollar - Daily chart

Watch the 43.20 levels very closely in the coming days.

Your call of action

Standby for fresh recommendations via SMS / yahoo messenger on a real - time basis.

Your feedback is important ! Please click here to let us know your views. Click here to inform a friend about our website.

Have a profitable day.
 
Vijay L Bhambwani
Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  is a  trademark  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any un-authorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.