Weekly market view
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April 09, 2004 |
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The value of shares advancing was Rs. 15,891 crores ( previous week Rs. 23,478 crs ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 12,949 crores ( previous week Rs 10,181 crs). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9,140 Crores ( previous week Rs 10,616 crs). The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 20,632 Crores ( previous week Rs 23,154 crs). Please note that these figures are not completely comparable due to a shorter week on account of good Friday.
The week saw an improvement
in the sentiments as the bulls lent support to the markets at lower
levels. The market breadth was positive for the second week in a row as
the above table indicates. The traded volumes were largely improved ( on a
pro-rata basis, after adjusting for the holiday). The bullishness was in
the banking, automobiles, oil & gas and the technology sector. A spate
of bonus announcements also helped to lift sentiments. The conclusion of
the ICICI Bank issue also saw a psychological relief to the sentiments as
the process of fund diversion to the primary markets was perceived as
halted for now. The Sensex was boosted by BHEL,
Guj Amb Cem, Hero Honda, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, L&T, ONGC, Ranbaxy,
Reliance, Satyam Computers, Telco, Wipro and Zee
Telefilms . The Sensex was
dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BSES,
Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hind Lever, HPCL, ICICI Bank,
MTNL, SBI, Tata Power and Tisco . The rupee ended the week at 43.62
levels (
Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I The markets are likely to be optimistic in the coming week as the bulls have lent good support at lower levels. Of all the traded volumes during the week, 48 % was transacted on negative market breadth days. The traded volumes were improved and the market breadth was positive. The F&O segment shows higher outstanding open long positions and that is a sign of optimism. The FII investments are continuing to flow in and that has been a major domo trigger for the bulls to hold their positions in the market. The upcoming earnings season will see a flurry of activity on the companies that are announcing their results first. The Rupee / US $ rates must be monitored closely for signs of balance of payment / inflation adjustment factors. The overseas markets are holding fort and therefore nothing significant by way of guidance is expected from the these factors. Overall, we expect a positive week, atleast in the initial half. Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I The weekly bar chart of the Nifty shows the index closing at a very crucial threshold level of 1850. The index has been moving within a downward sloping channel and a conclusive breakout will be signalled only above the 1880 levels on a sustained closing basis. The same must be accompanied with heavier traded volumes and positive market breadth. The open interest must also increase to mandate a clear buy. The immediate support is at the 1830 levels, below which the Nifty must not close during the course of the coming week. The momentum oscillators are showing an upmove which needs to be confirmed by the price graph for a secular & sustained upmove. We expect immediate resistance levels to be at the 1882 then the 1900 mark.
Our outlook on the Nifty is that of cautious optimism and long positions need to initiated only on advances. Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I
For stock specific recommendations, please refer to our special edition - "Flavours of the week". Please click here to view the previous editions of the same Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I Your feedback is important ! Please click here to let us know your views. Click here to inform a friend about this page on our website.
The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345. SEBI disclosure - The author has no positions in the stocks mentioned above.
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