Weekly market view

 
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April 18, 2004

Markets creep higher. Sensex gains 23 points.

Higher volumes, positive breadth as bulls attempt comeback.

Weekly statistics

Indices Open High Low Close Change
BSE - 30 5856 5927 5743 5861 23.18
BSE - 200 772 790 760 785 15.24
NSE - 50 1860 1885 1819 1868 14.55
Dow Jones 10452 10 Nasdaq 1996 57 FTSE

4537 48

Advances 7740 Declines 5097 Put / Call trades - 29281 : 81320
FII Investments Rs  2229 Crs Apr 1 - 15 Domestic Funds Rs  96 Crs Apr 1 - 15

The value of BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 19,180 crores ( previous week Rs 15,891  crs ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 12,808 crores ( previous week Rs 12,949 crs ). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 10,208 Crores ( previous week Rs 9,140 crs ). The total traded volume on the NSE  was Rs. 22,069 Crores ( previous week Rs 20,632 crs ).

The week that was

The markets saw an improved undertone as the volumes and sentiments picked up. The technology stocks gave a pleasant surprise by way of bonuses and earnings guidance. The market breadth was positive and the capitalisation was positive too. Traded volumes picked up too and that is a heartening signal. The bulls attempted to wrest back the initiative from the bears and build long positions. The Sensex  was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Grasim, Guj Amb Cem, Hind Lever, Infosys, MTNL, Satyam Computers, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex  was dragged down by BSES, Dr Reddy, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hero Honda, HPCL, Hindalco, ITC, L&T, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance and Tisco. The rupee ended the week at 43.94 levels ( 00.32 ) against  the US $.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Likely triggers

The markets are likely to be governed by the results and elections in the short term. The traded volumes are improved and there is a qualitative improvement in the traded pattern. However, the overall picture needs to improve on even heavier volumes and positive market breadth and an increase in outstanding open positions. The technology sector will play a major role in the market trends due to the sheer weightage factor alone. The important developments to watch in the coming week will be results and the way the open interest fluctuates before expiry of the April contracts. Should the open interest rally with good volumes, retail participation will improve. The cement and banking sectors will lead the charge in the markets.

The overseas markets have been more or less steady and are unlikely to influence the domestic markets in a major way. Overall, we expect a crucial week ahead.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Technicals - Nifty important levels

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Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Your call of action

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Have a profitable day.
 
Vijay L Bhambwani
Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.


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