The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Aug 07, 2004

Markets weaken in late trade. Sensex gains 27 points.

Lower volumes, positive breadth as even as overseas markets crash.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5193	5262	5145	5196	26.67
BSE - 200	676	689	673	678	04.17
NSE - 50	1631	1658	1618	1633	01.10
Dow  Jones	9815 325	Nasdaq	1777 110	FTSE	4338  75
Advances	6623	Declines	6412	Put / Call trades - 33504 : 87958
FII Investments	Rs  267 Crs Aug 1 - 5		Domestic Funds	Rs  107 Crs Aug 1 - 5

The BSE & NSE weekly combined value of  shares advancing was Rs. 16,443 crores ( previous week Rs. 19,414 crores ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 14,214 crores ( previous week Rs. 13,906 crores ). This indicates a very marginal buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9,136 Crores ( previous week Rs. 9,985 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE  was Rs. 21,630 Crores ( previous week Rs. 23,439 Crores ).

The week saw a selloff in the final two sessions as the bulls unloaded positions on profit taking considerations coupled with overseas factors. The traded volumes were marginally lower than the previous week and the undertone was cautious. The market breadth was positive but just so, and the capitalisation of the breadth shows a buying bias on index heavy-weights, though the buying momentum is slacking off. The Sensex  was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cem, Hero Honda, HPCL, ICICI Bank, ITC, L&T, Ranbaxy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, Telco, Tisco and Wipro. The Sensex  was dragged down by Bharati Tele, Cipla, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hind Lever, Hindalco, Infosys, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Tata Power and Zee Telefilms. The rupee ended the week at 46.37 levels ( 00.02 ) against  the US $.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

• The markets are likely to react to the high inflationary pressures caused by higher oil prices in the initial part of the week. High crude prices have been an area of concern with us and our investors will recollect that this has been pointed out repeatedly by us.

• The monsoons are likely to be another area of concern as the scene so far has been erratic. However, a sustained rainfall over the next 3 weeks would mean lower inflationary figures as crop output estimates improve

• The F&O figures indicate lower turnover figures, which shows a wait and watch approach by traders. The bears are building up short positions and are likely to exert downward pressure on the markets in the near term.

• The FII investments have been largely positive and are likely to be a major fillip to the bulls who are seeking signs of comfort in the near term.

• The TCS ipo is over and any downward pressure from selling in the secondary markets would have been factored in. There should not be major selling from the retail segment at this point in time, with the objective of raising cash for the IPO.

• The overseas markets are likely to exert downward pressure as the high oil prices are likely to see lower consumer demand from here onwards. The upcoming elections in the USA will ensure that the nervousness remains high.

• The major positive for the markets will be the expected inflows from the FII's like CalPERS and others, and the free trade agreements between India & USA.

Overall, we expect a cautious week ahead as the sentiments are likely to be sanguine. We advocate taking a smaller exposure to the markets in the coming weeks. 

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

This segment is for paid subscribers only.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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