The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Aug 21, 2004

Markets slip further. Sensex sheds 38 points.

Lower volumes, positive breadth as old economy stocks dive.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5105	5148	5025	5064	38.26
BSE - 200	664	671	656	661	02.29
NSE - 50	1597	1628	1577	1590	07.85
Dow  Jones	10110 285	Nasdaq	1838  81	FTSE	4369 68
Advances	6770	Declines	6256	Put / Call trades - 45341 : 94870
FII Investments	Rs  694 Crs Aug 1 - 18		Domestic Funds	Rs  223 Crs Aug 1 - 18

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of  shares advancing was Rs. 13,876 crores ( previous week Rs. 12,079 crores ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 11,626 crores ( previous week Rs. 18,264 crores ). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 7,598 Crores ( previous week Rs. 9,755 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 17,988 Crores ( previous week Rs. 20,675 Crores ).

The markets saw a nervous week as the bulls preferred to offload long positions ahead of the impeding derivatives settlement. The zooming crude oil prices played the major part of tearing down trader confidence as fears of higher inflation eroded sentiments. Traded volumes were hit as retail investors played a wait and watch approach. The market breadth was positive and the capitalisation of the breadth was also marginally positive as select frontline index counters saw buying support at lower levels. The technology sector remained in the limelight as polarised buying activity was seen on the frontline stocks in the segment. The Sensex was boosted by Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, Hero Honda, HPCL, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, L&T, Reliance Energy, Satyam Computers, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex  was dragged down by Bharati Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hind Lever, ICICI Bank, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Inds, SBI, Telco and Tata Power. The rupee ended the week at 46.32 levels ( 00.01 ) against  the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks file.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

• The markets are likely to be governed by the international crude oil prices, inflation and the worries of an economic slowdown

• The impeding expiry of the August series will have a role to play in the short term trend determination. So far, only 10 % of the outstanding positions have been rolled over to the September series, which is lower than historical averages. The tendency is towards squaring long positions at higher levels, rather than rolling them forward.

• The F&O indicators show a slowdown in traded volumes as the retail segment has withdrawn from the day-to-day trading activity in the markets.

• FII's have been constant sellers in the week as the weekly sales sum up to Rs 218 crs - they have not been net buyers on a single day of the week

• Of the entire traded turnover during the week, 40 % of the trades were initiated on downtick days. The market breadth has been marginally positive and the turnover has been lower. That implies a gradual fall in the markets, rather than a steep rapid drop

• The overseas markets have been firm as the oil prices have eased marginally towards the week end and joblessness data has been better than expected. The undertone though nervous for the domestic markets in the coming week, the downsides will not be significant as the bears are covering shorts at lower levels as pointed by us last week. Click here to view the previous weeks file.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

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Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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