The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Dec 28, 2003

Markets test March ' 00 levels. Sensex gains 157 points.

Nifty hits lifetime high as heavy weights lead rally.

Weekly statistics

The value of  shares advancing was Rs. 19488 crores and the value of shares declining was Rs. 9060 crores. This indicates a broader buying bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9786 Crores. The total traded volume on the NSE  was Rs. 19339 Crores.

The week saw a bullish trend pervade the sentiments as the downward correction was short lived. The indices entered a low resistance zone and the Nifty hot as new lifetime high. The Sensex saw a 47 month high. The traded volumes were lower due to the holiday during the week. The market breadth in numerical and capitalisation terms shows a bullishness in the undertone and the rally was broadbased as the frontline and mid cap stocks participated in the upmove. The Sensex  was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, BSES, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Infosys, L&T, MTNL, Reliance, Satyam Computers, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco and Wipro. The Sensex  was dragged down by ITC, ONGC and Ranbaxy. The rupee ended the week at 45.58 levels ( -00.06 ) against  the US $. Overall, the week was as per our expectations. click here to view the previous weeks report.

Changes in outstanding futures positions.

Stars of the week

Stock	Open interest	Stock price	Outlook
Arvind Mills	Up	Up	Bullish
L&T	Up	Up	Bullish
MTNL	Up	Up	Bullish
ONGC	Up	Up	Bullish
Reliance	Up	Up	Bullish
Tisco	Up	Up	Bullish

 

Note - +++ signifies higher open interest in the January & February simultaneously.

The put call ratio is at 0.18 : 1 ( previous week 0.34 : 1)

The value of outstanding long positions (gross) is Rs 9,344 crs. ( previous week Rs 12,006 crs )

The markets are firmly entrenched in a bullish groove and the bulls are unlikely to yield to selling pressure. The indices are in new trading zones and upward resistances are likely to be near absent - barring profit taking at higher levels. The derivatives segment shows an interesting pattern unfolding - the Nifty short positions are now lower than the long positions and the put call ratio is now sharply swinging in the bulls' favour ( refer table above). This has been a big change over the previous week. The outstanding positions are lower due to the January cycle being in the infancy stage and the festive spirit ensuring lower volumes. The coming week will see lower volumes due to absence of some players and the Q3 NAV computation factor making the institutional players the most aggressive players of the markets. Our investors will recollect that we had pointed out the fact that FII's were unlikely to sell in December atleast a month ago - a fact which has been proved correct ! Of the entire traded volumes transacted last week, only 25 % were done on negative market breadth days and the remaining on bullish days. The weekly breadth was positive and FII investments continued to pour in. The pre-result buildup will see an optimistic trend continuing in the markets.

The overseas markets are firm and likely to lend a feel-good-factor to the domestic markets. The bullish data on the manufacturing, employment and consumer spending sectors in the USA are likely to keep the global markets upbeat. Overall, we expect a bullish market sentiment.

The weekly bar chart of the Nifty shows a continued uptrend as the pattern is that of higher bottoms and tops. The momentum oscillators are showing a bullishness as the trend is up. The faster momentum oscillators are in the over bought zone as per the classic bull market pattern. The 1750 levels will be a short term support level for the Nifty in the coming week. On the higher side, expect the 1866 and 1880 levels to be the near term resistance levels for the Nifty in the short term. The Nifty has fulfilled our post Diwali computation of 1800 levels by December end - to the advantage of our investors. click here to view the previous weeks report

Our outlook on the Nifty is that of bullishness, barring routine profit taking at higher levels.

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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