The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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July 24, 2004

Markets rally on FM's gift. Sensex gains 122 points.

Higher volumes, positive breadth even as US markets hit 2 month lows.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	4957	5086	4936	5073	122.17
BSE - 200	646	665	644	662	16.69
NSE - 50	1559	1610	1555	1601	42 .80
Dow Jones	9962 178	Nasdaq	1849  34	FTSE	4326 13
Advances	7374	Declines	5671	Put / Call trades - 51154 : 99677
FII Investments	Rs  650 Crs July 1 - 22		Domestic Funds	Rs  157 Crs July 1 - 22

The value of  shares advancing was Rs. 20,267 crores ( previous week Rs. 18,143 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 9,851 crores ( previous week Rs. 7,429 crores ). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9,027 Crores ( previous week Rs. 7,466 Crores ). The total traded volume on the NSE  was Rs. 21,285 Crores ( previous week Rs. 18,467 Crores ).

The markets have seen a bullish week as the market participants were rewarded by the FM albeit after a breath taking wait. The traded volumes jumped sharply and the market breadth remained positive for the third week in a row, which is a positive indicator. The capitalisation of the breadth was also positive as the buying was across the board on the frontline counters and index heavy-weights. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bharati Tele, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, HDFC Bank, HDFC, HPCL, ICICI Bank, L&T, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, SBI, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was dragged down by Bajaj Auto, Guj Amb Cem, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, Hindalco, Infosys, ITC, Ranbaxy and Telco. The rupee ended the week at 46.33 levels ( 00.37 ) against the US $. Click here to view the previous weeks file.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

The markets are likely to see some more buying momentum before cooling off as the bulls are likely to prevail over the bears for some more time. It maybe noted that the FII's have remained buyers for all the 4 sessions that we have records available from SEBI, which is a positive indicator. The domestic institutional players are sellers, though in smaller quantum. The relief provided by the FM is a psychological booster, rather than any major fundamental change in the macro economic scenario and should be a short term trigger for the markets. The coming week will be governed by the derivatives expiry considerations and the corporate earnings. The PM is likely to announce the drought relief measures by the month end which will throw more clarity on the monsoon front. The coming week will also the opening of the TCS ipo and diversion of investor focus & resources to the primary market as the country's largest IPO kicks off. The next most worrying factor is the international outlook as the crude oil prices have jumped sharply and dampened international sentiments. The F&O indicators are pointing towards a steady build up of short positions which is indicating a bear pressure on the markets.

The overseas ( USA ) markets have slumped to their 2 month lows as the Dow Jones industrial average has slipped below the 10,000 threshold and the Nasdaq below the 1900 mark. That may cap the upsides in the coming week. Overall, we expect profit taking at higher levels as the markets are likely to encounter resistance on major advances. Click here to view the previous weeks file.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

This segment is for paid subscribers only.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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