Weekly market view.             July 31, 2004

 
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July 31, 2004

Markets recover further. Sensex gains 97 points.

Higher volumes, negative breadth as bulls tighten grip.

Weekly statistics

Indices Open High Low Close Change
BSE - 30 5046 5200 5034 5170 96.98
BSE - 200 659 677 656 674 12.22
NSE - 50 1602 1638 1584 1632 30.70
Dow Jones 10140 178 Nasdaq 1887 38 FTSE

4413 87

Advances 6064 Declines 6878 Put / Call trades - 49628 : 115198
FII Investments Rs  1098 Crs July 1 - 29 Domestic Funds Rs  471 Crs July 1 - 29

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of  shares advancing was Rs. 19,414 crores ( previous week Rs. 20,267 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 13,906 crores ( previous week Rs. 9,851 crores ). This indicates a marginal selling bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9,985 Crores ( previous week Rs. 9,027 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE  was Rs. 23,439 Crores ( previous week Rs. 21,285 Crores ).

The week that was

The week saw a continued buying momentum by the bulls as the July F&O series expired smoothly. The traded volumes were marginally higher this week as the bulls returned to the markets after the turnover tax issue was resolved. The action was polarised around the technology stocks as the old economy stocks gyrated on results and monsoon announcements. The market breadth was marginally negative and the capitalisation of the breadth shows slower buying momentum on the index heavy-weights as upsides are seeing profit taking. The Sensex  was boosted by ACC, Cipla, Dr. Reddy,  Guj Ambuja Cements, HDFC Bank, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, ONGC, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, Tata Motors, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex  was dragged down by Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Grasim, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, L&T, MTNL, Ranbaxy, Reliance Energy, SBI and Tata Power. The Rupee ended the week at 46.35 levels ( 00.02 ) against  the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks report.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Likely triggers

The markets are likely to be influenced by the corporate earnings and the monsoons in the near term. The PM's drought relief measures will confirm the extent of rainfall deficiency. The markets will see a continued buying momentum from the bulls as the sentiments have improved in the recent times. The short covering by the bears will add to the upward impetus and drive the indices higher. The higher crude oil prices will be a cause for concern and the overseas markets will remain under pressure as long as crude prices remain firm. The domestic prices of petrol having gone up by Re 1 will also add to inflationary pressures on the economy. The FII investments have remained positive throughout the week and that is a sign of major comfort for the bulls. On the technology front, the TCS ipo will see an acceleration of inflows towards the end and a possible re-shuffling of holdings as the institutional players pare exposure to the listed technology stocks. It maybe noted that if no institutional selling occurs in the coming week, tech stocks will lead the markets. The F&O segment is pointing towards a stable undertone as the volumes have perked up and the open interest is down - a routine phenomena after expiry. The implied volatility is down and the sentiments appear optimistic.

The overseas markets markets have been bouyant as the fears of continued depression have receeded. There has been a corrective rally and that is likely to improve the sentiments in the domestic sentiments too. Click here to view the previous weeks report

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Technicals

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Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Your call of action

For stock specific recommendations, please refer to our special edition "Flavours of the week". Click here to view the previous editions of the Flavours of the week.

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Have a profitable day.
 
Vijay L Bhambwani
Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.


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