The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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March 06, 2004

Markets do a pole vault. Sensex zooms 213 points.

Lower volumes, negative breadth as markets close at fortnights high.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5649	5892	5649	5880	212.84
BSE - 200	725	758	725	757	32.24
NSE - 50	1798	1871	1795	1867	67.40
Dow Jones	10595  12	Nasdaq	2048  18	FTSE	4547  55
Advances	5079	Declines	5489	Put / Call trades - 28312 : 75474
FII Investments	Rs  886 Crs Mar 1 - 4		Domestic Funds	Rs   59 Crs Mar 1 - 4

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 21,149 crores and the equivalent value of shares declining was Rs. 9,743 crores. This indicates a marginal selling bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 10,010 Crores ( previous week Rs 12,844 crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 20,974 Crores ( previous week Rs. 27,626 crores ). It maybe noted that the week was a truncated one due to a holiday on Tuesday.

The markets saw a bullish week as the bulls lent support to the markets, led by the institutional players. The traded volumes were lower and a holiday resulted in even poorer volume figures. The market breadth was negative and the capitalisation of the breadth was highly positive. This indicates a polarised buying on the index heavy-weights to prop up the markets. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, BSES, Cipla, Grasim, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC Ltd, L&T, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco and Wipro. The Sensex was dragged down by Dr Reddy, Hind Lever, Satyam Computers and Zee Telefilms. The rupee ended the week at 45.29 levels ( 00.05 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks editions.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

The markets are likely to get comfort from the overwhelming response to the ONGC issue which was a large overhang of nervousness on the sentiments. The FII investments have been robust and the domestic institutions too have turned buyers after a brief hiatus. The markets are likely to trade with lower volumes as the liquidity crunch will persist due to the bunching of IPO's and the advance tax payments. Market players will need to get accustomed to higher volatility and sharper price swings on thinner volumes - atleast till the month end. The US $ is gaining strength against the INR and that may see a relief rally / limited attrition on the technology sector. This sector is heavily weighted on the indices and therefore will influence the market movements significantly. This aspect has been pointed out by us even last week. Click here to view the previous weeks editions 

The overseas markets have been marginally bullish and that will ensure a support to the domestic markets on declines. Overall, we expect an upbeat forthcoming week.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

The Nifty shows a positive closing on a week-on-week basis after a fortnight of losses. The effective base at the 1750 is now a confirmed bottom for the markets. The Nifty is now trading above the 13 week moving average and the resistance at the higher levels will be seen at the 1890 then at the 1920 levels. Beyond the 1920 levels, take a fresh view on the bullish outlook. On the lower side, we expect immediate support at the 1822 levels which will see value buying. The momentum oscillator is showing a bounceback in the index and the Nifty closing above the 1875 with higher volumes will confirm the short term bullishness. Last week, we had accurately forecast a weekly for the Nifty at the 1860 levels. Click here to view the previous weeks editions

Our outlook for the Nifty is positive and long positions maybe initiated in small / medium numbers.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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