The Professional Ticker Reader TM

Your accurate, authentic and affordable guide to investing

March 20, 2004

Markets see accentuated weakness. Sensex dives 257 points.

Lower volumes, negative breadth as retail segment goes into hibernation.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5745	5764	5386	5443	257
BSE - 200	748	751	706	713	29
NSE - 50	1812	1836	1703	1725	87
Dow Jones	10187  53	Nasdaq	1940  44	FTSE	4418  50
Advances	4383	Declines	8499	Put / Call trades - 63429 : 133217
FII Investments	Rs  2300 Crs Mar 1 - 18		Domestic Funds	Rs  295 Crs  1 - 18

The weekly BSE & NSE combined value of shares advancing was Rs. 14,904 crores ( previous week Rs. 15,987 crores ) and the equivalent value of shares declining was Rs. 21,071 crores ( previous week Rs. 23,579 crores ). This indicates a broader selling bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 11,805 Crores ( previous week Rs 12,965 crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 24,221 Crores ( previous week Rs. 26,674 crores ).

The markets saw another week of losses as the indices fell sharper as compared to the previous week. The sentiments took a major hit and the bulls were seen surrendering their long positions out of sheer panic. The traded volumes this week were lower than the previous week and the market breadth was negative. Of the entire transacted value of shares traded, the entire 100 % was on negative market days. The technology sector was the only gainer and the other index heavyweoghts lost ground on offloading. The Sensex was boosted by Infosys, ONGC and Satyam. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, BSES, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cem, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, ITC Ltd, L&T, MTNL, Ranbaxy, Reliance, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The rupee ended the week at 45.16 levels ( + 00.09 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks editions.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

The markets are likely to be nervous as the upsides are likely to see nervous unloading by tired bulls. The impeding expiry of the derivatives contracts for March is likely to weigh down heavily on the sentiments and the sentiments. The picture will be clearer from the F&O segment - if the outstanding long positions increase, the sentiments are optimistic, otherwise, expect the slide to continue. The upcoming earnings season may or maynot help matters significantly as the undertone is brittle. Coupled with the looming elections and the year end, we expect no major upsides. Our prime concern is the possible selling by banks which are holding shares as collateral from borrowers in the equity advance accounts. Since it is the year end, banks will not be flexible in loans against shares and will be jumpy too. If this selling wave comes in the market, the sentiments are likely to be hit further.

The overseas markets have been weak too and provide no comfort to the bulls. The mood is clearly that of caution. We re-iterate our bearish outlook with selling at higher levels as it was last week. Click here to view the previous weeks editions 

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

The weekly bar chart of the Nifty shows a continued falling tops and bottoms formation. As was advocated last week, the 1750 levels which were a crucial trend determining mark, has been violated and the Nifty is now poised for a further fall. The immediate supports for the Nifty are at the 1685 then the 1670 levels in the near term. On the upsides, we expect the Nifty to encounter resistance at the 1750 then the 1767 levels. The oscillators continue to point towards a weakness in the undertone. Click here to view the previous weeks editions.

Our outlook on the index is that of continued caution and we expect selling pressure on advances.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

---

Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  is a  trademark  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any un-authorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

---

While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.