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Sept 11, 2004

Indices surpass barriers. Sensex gains 152 points.

Stagnant volumes, positive breadth as bulls extend rally.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5226	5376	5226	5370	151.59
BSE - 200	687	701	687	701	14.18
NSE - 50	1634	1670	1634	1668	34.65
Dow Jones	10313  53	Nasdaq	1894  50	FTSE	4545 03
Advances	8024	Declines	6237	Put / Call trades - 34749 : 72486
FII Investments	Rs  445 Crs Sept 1 - 9		Domestic Funds	Rs  160 Crs Sept 1 - 6

The BSE & NSE weekly combined value of shares advancing was Rs. 15,711 crores ( previous week Rs. 18,493 crores ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 9,025 crores ( previous week Rs. 6,600 crores). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 7,663 Crores ( previous week Rs. 7,776 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 17,238 Crores ( previous week Rs. 17,743 Crores ).

The week saw a positive undertone in the sentiments as the market breadth was positive and the gains were broad based. The traded volumes remained flat and remain an area of concern. The inflation figures seemed not to have deterred the bulls who extended their support at lower levels. The typical thing about volumes this week was the steady increase in daily figures from Monday onwards over each preceeding session. Mid caps continued to be the flavour of the season as this segment continued to attract polarised trading activity. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bharati Tele, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cem, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hind Lever, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ITC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco and Wipro. The Sensex was dragged down by Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Hero Honda, HPCL, L&T, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy and Zee Telefilms. The Rupee ended the week at 46.26 levels ( 00.04 ) against the US $. Overall, the market was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous weeks reports

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

• The markets are likely to remain optimistic in view of the OPEC meet on September 15, 2004 to determine crude output issues. Lower crude prices are likely to imbibe confidence in the market sentiments.

• The inflation figures announced by the Govt are pertaining to the previous week, after which oil prices have softened. The coming Friday will see controlled inflation numbers, which will be a feel-good-factor in the markets

• The conflict resolution dialogue between India and Pakistan is also likely to bolster sentiments as the trade ties are likely to see conducive political and military scenarios

• The FII investments have been a positive Rs 200 crs in the first four days of the week. The only selling day has been Sept 06 wherein Rs 40 Crs sales were logged.

• Of the entire transacted volumes, only 20 % have been on negative market breadth day ( Thursday, Sept 09 ) and 80 % has been on uptick days. That shows a qualitative improvement in trades.

• The F&O indicators are pointing towards increased outstanding long positions, which shows improved bull participation. The overall traded volumes in the cash and F&O have stagnated which is a minor worry. Improved volumes would be a welcome sign for the bulls.

• The Q2 ending is likely to see increased institutional participation as this segment of players will try to boost their NAV's in the near term.

• The overseas markets have been firm on positive economic data and that is likely to add to the optimism in the undertone.

Click here to view the previous weeks reports

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

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Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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