The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Sept 18, 2004

Markets hit 5 month highs. Sensex gains 191 points.

Higher volumes, as bulls throw hat in the ring.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5380	5569	5376	5561	191.10
BSE - 200	701	725	701	724	23.77
NSE - 50	1668	1736	1668	1733	64.90
Dow Jones	10284 29	Nasdaq	1910  16	FTSE	4591  46
Advances	7126	Declines	7309	Put / Call trades - 52282 : 116630
FII Investments	Rs  792 Crs Sept 1 - 16		Domestic Funds	Rs  102 Crs Sept 1 - 16

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 19,630 crores ( previous week Rs. 15,711 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 10,357 crores ( previous week Rs. 9,025 crores). This indicates a buying bias on index heavy-weights. The total traded weekly volume on the BSE was Rs. 9224 Crores ( previous week Rs. 7,663 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 20,856 Crores ( previous week Rs. 17,238 Crores ).

The markets saw the bulls return with force as the indices rallied smartly to close near 5 month highs. The traded volumes were brisk, the undertone was optimistic and the market breadth was almost even. The capitalisation of the breadth was positive which shows buying momentum on the frontline index heavy-weights. The boost has come across the board as the buying was broad-based and the fact that the traded volumes were higher, makes this rally credible. The Sensex saw none of the composite stocks losing ground. The Rupee ended the week at 45.82 levels ( 00.44 ) against the US $. Overall, the market was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous week's files.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

• The markets are likely to be enthused by the positive news on the inflation front as the figures are lower as we forecast last week.

• The FII inflows have been positive to the tune of Rs. 207 crs in the first four days of the week.

• The F&O indicators point towards a sharp increase in the outstanding open interest in the futures segment and the PCR of the overall market has turned bearish as large-scale short positions have been built up in the markets.

• The international crude oil prices have been steadily suppressed by the OPEC after their Sept 15 meeting and that comfort factor will depend on future price movement.

• The bear covering that is likely to occur if the upmove remains intact will cause the indices to rally further as we have accurately predicted repeatedly.

• The immediate trigger for the markets will be the institutional activity in the run up to the Q2 NAV computation which we have been pointing out since a week.

• The pre-result build up of positions will be seen in the coming days as players start second guessing the earnings numbers of companies.

• The overseas markets have remained stagnant and are unlikely to exert undue influence on the short term trend determination process in the domestic markets.

 Click here to view the previous week's files.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

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Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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